Myanmar rice prices likely to rise as China signals quota boost: sources

Chinese buyers ramped up inquiries for January shipments, driven by expectations that Beijing will renew and potentially raise its import quota for Myanmar rice by early January, market sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Nov. 19.

The increasing demand from China is setting the stage for a potential price rally for Myanmar rice.

Market participants said optimism is building over China's potential quota expansion for 2026, following months of strengthened government-to-government engagements.

"Myanmar's rice exports to China, particularly the categories requiring quota, are steadily increasing. Exports of broken rice do not need [a] quota, while exports of rice do. This year, through strengthened Government-to-Government dialogue and cooperation, MRF [Myanmar Rice Federation] expects that China is granting a larger rice quota for Myanmar," U Ye Min Aung, chairman of the Myanmar Rice Federation, said.

"For the 2025-2026 fiscal year, Myanmar's rice and broken rice exports to China are projected to reach 1 million metric tons, supported by credible and consistent demand from Chinese buyers. Myanmar's rice and broken rice remain highly competitive in regional markets, both in terms of pricing and in the continued improvement of quality."

China is the largest export destination for Myanmar rice in Fiscal Year 2025-26, according to data from the Myanmar Rice Federation. In the first seven months of FY 2025-26 (April-March), China imported 693,834 mt of total rice, out of which 314,212 mt comprised broken rice and 379,622 mt consisted of other varieties, primarily white rice, the data showed.

Preference toward Myanmar unique varieties

Industry traders mentioned that Chinese buyers continue to favor Myanmar's unique medium and short-grain rice varieties, such as Sin Thu Kha, Kayinma and hard-cooking type broken rice. These unique varieties are primarily utilized in the rice processing industry for products such as flour, cereals and noodles, with some also for domestic consumption.

"The Chinese government is likely to release rice import quota for 2026 in the early weeks of January. We are already seeing Chinese demand for varieties like Sin Thu Kha rice and hard-cooking type broken rice for January shipments," a Yangon-based exporter from a leading company said.

Market expectations of firmer prices are most visible in the broken rice segment, where demand from China is accelerating, particularly for use in noodle production.

Another Yangon-based exporter confirmed tightening sentiment in the brokens market. "Prices for brokens are increasing, and brokens are now at the same level as 25% WR. China is using brokens for noodle production, so their demand is high. The current price for B1 & B2 brokens is around $285/MT FOB FCL, and it is expected to go above $290/mt within a week," the same exporter said.

Platts assessed the weekly B1 and B2 broken rice assessment at $274/mt FOB FCL on Nov. 14, up $4/mt week over week.

Inquiries are rising and the quota announcement is approaching; traders anticipate that the upward momentum in Myanmar rice prices will continue into early 2026.