Corn use for US feed set to rise as beef demand declines

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and S&P Global Energy have raised their forecasts for corn usage in animal feed, particularly for broiler feeding, in 2026. This adjustment comes in light of a notable decline in beef demand driven by rising prices.

"Our view is consistent in that ample supplies of corn are likely to make it competitive in feeding," said Mary Kate Scruggs, principal corn analyst at S&P Global Energy.

For the marketing year 2025/26, which for US corn runs from September to August, WASDE and Energy projects a production of 16.8 billion bushels, a year over year increase of 13%.

In terms of the feed and residual use, WASDE forecast an annual increase of 11% for the MY 2025/26, reaching to 6,100 million bushels. While Energy projections are below at 5,925 million bushels, an annual increase of 8%.

CEO's of Tyson Foods and Pilgrims said during their latest conference calls with analysts that chicken will be the focus in their production.

"While we are not satisfied with our current beef results, our diversified business model continues to build resilience and drive profitability across the company," said Tyson Foods CEO, Donnie D. King, Nov. 11, adding that 2026 presents further opportunities for our Chicken business.

King said that chicken is an affordable, high-quality protein and our innovative value-added offerings position us uniquely to serve both retail and foodservice customers amid high beef prices.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, the price of ground beef has increased by nearly 12% from the previous year, while the average price of chicken has risen by 2.9%.

Platts assessed chicken jumbo breast EXW on Nov. 18 at $1.15/lb, while at the beginning of the year the average price was $2.70/lb. Strong stable production rates were able to bring pricing down, supported by fewer bird flu cases since the spring and the expectation of stable feed costs have helped keep hatcheries running at near capacity levels.

"Right now a minimal expansion is still probable, but this year's growth definitely got us out over our skis a bit, so producers seem to be cautious. Margins are still positive, but definitely contracted after the late Q3-early Q4 price downtrends cut into returns - despite favorable feed costs," said Kelly Seier, poultry analyst at Energy.

The USDA's latest forecasts indicate a 5% decline in US beef production in 2026, reaching to 25.140 billion pounds. This reduction is attributed to tighter cattle supplies, fewer feeder cattle imports, and heifer retention for breeding.

For broilers, the latest production forecast was 48.15 billion pounds, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.8%. This increase is attributed to favorable grain prices and tight supplies of other meats

"Notably, chicken is the only protein expected to see an increase (production and consumption), offset by decreases in availability of beef, pork and turkey," said Fabio Sandri, CEO of Pilgrims on Oct. 30.

Sandri said that regarding the ample supply of corn, they do not foresee any scenario where they will see a squeeze or a significant increase in input costs.

The outright prices assessed by Platts for US corn in the CIF NOLA on Nov. 18 jump 80 cents for November shipments compared to the previous assessment, to $203.45/mt. A barge basis was assessed at 80 cents/bu over the CBOT of Z contracts.

For CIF NOLA December shipments, Platts assessed at $205.40/mt, with a barge basis assessed at 85 cents/bu over the CBOT of Z contracts.