Ukraine grain sector hit by power shortages, logistics delays and harvest disruptions

Ukraine's grain sector is facing increasing pressure due to war-related disruptions and adverse weather conditions, with power shortages, logistical challenges in wheat production, and significant harvesting delays straining corn supply chains nationwide, market participants said.

A broker based in Ukraine said that the "Ukrainian agricultural sector is under significant supply pressure right now," highlighting the toll of recent conditions.

Delegates from Ukraine who attended the Global Grain conference in Geneva, Nov. 10-13, reported that heavy rainfall has severely delayed corn harvesting. The wet conditions are also affecting drying operations, with shortages of functional drying machines adding further complications. At the same time, persistent nationwide power shortages are disrupting logistics, particularly rail transport, making it increasingly difficult to move grain toward export terminals.

Egypt, one of Ukraine's largest wheat buyers, has boosted its purchase volumes over the past year. However, an Egypt-based importer warned that the current operational issues could impact procurement in the upcoming season. "Whenever they get a chance to squeeze supplies out, they will immediately," the importer added, referring to how tightening availability may prompt traders to move quickly.

Ukrainian corn shipments to Spain, which only recently resumed, may also decline if disruptions persist, market sources said.

With harvesting delays, power outages, and transport bottlenecks tightening supply, prices have begun to rise. Another broker noted that higher Ukrainian values could make alternative origins more competitive in the international market.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Ukrainian corn FOB Black Sea at $219/mt, up by $4/mt month over month, and Ukrainian Wheat 11.5% FOB Black Sea at $230.5/mt, firmed by $2.5/mt month over month.