Ukraine's 2021-22 wheat exports up 16% on year; prices remain firm

Ukraine's wheat exports rose 16% on the year to 12.4 million mt since the start of the 2021-22 marketing year on July 1 through Nov. 1, according to data from the country's agricultural ministry.

In October, the Ukrainian agriculture ministry set a limit on wheat exports in MY 2021-22 of 25.3 million mt. In MY 2020-21, Ukraine shipped 16.6 million mt of wheat.

S&P Global Platts Analytics has projected Ukraine to export 22.5 million mt of wheat in MY 2021-22. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture projected Ukraine's wheat exports at 23.5 million mt during the same period in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released Oct. 12.

Wheat exports have gathered pace over the past few weeks, as an increase in tax on wheat exports in Russia has been leading to tightness in supplies, traders said.

Export prices of Ukrainian wheat increased nearly 4% over the past two weeks as demand for the crop rose, traders said.

The FOB prices of Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat were assessed at $322.50/mt Nov. 1, up $3.25 from Oct. 29, according to Platts data.

Harvest progress

Ukraine harvested about 33 million mt of wheat in MY 2021-22, up from 25.4 million mt in MY 2020-21, according to a ministry statement.

Platts Analytics has forecast Ukraine's wheat production at 31.2 million mt for the current marketing year.

The USDA has pegged Ukraine's wheat output for the year at 33 million mt, up from 25.4 million mt in MY 2020-21.

Farmers in Ukraine had sown winter wheat across 6.1 million hectares for MY 2022-23 as of Nov. 1, accounting for 91% of the forecast area of 6.7 million hectares.

According to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry, wheat planting campaign has been completed in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Transcarpathian, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Sumy, Luhansk, Rivne, and Ternopil regions among others.