Brazilian soybean planting slower than average despite rains: AgRural

New Delhi — Brazilian soybean planting has been progressing at the slowest pace of the last five years because of extremely dry weather across most of the country in the past few weeks, although recent rains did improve soil moisture, agricultural consultancy AgRural said Oct. 26.

Brazilian soybean farmers have managed to plant only 23% of the total estimated area up to Oct. 22, against 8% a week earlier, according to the report from AgRural.

Soybean planting delays in Brazil are not expected to affect total crop output for the 2020-21 crop year (September-August) as the late-planted soybean crop should receive more rainfall in late October and November, which would boost production.

Even in 2019, Brazilian soybean planting was delayed by two weeks and the country still managed to produce 126 million mt, an all-time high.

However, delays to soybean planting mean the timing of the harvest could be pushed back a few weeks, which would be advantageous to US soybean farmers, market sources said.

Brazil's soybean harvest generally begins in February, but a delayed planting could push the harvest date a little further out.

Parana sets the pace

By the end of January every year, US soybean farmers sell the majority of their stocks, so a lagging Brazilian harvest means tight supply and high demand for US beans in the first quarter of 2021, an ideal scenario for an increase in prices.

If the Brazilian soybean harvest continues to be sluggish against the five-year average, soybean futures could march toward $11/bu in the coming weeks, because strong Chinese bean demand is set to continue, market sources said.

According to AgRural, the state of Parana is leading the pace of soybean planting at 51% due to heavy rains.

Soybean planting has also progressed well in Mato Grosso, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul and sufficient rains are expected in the coming days, which should further accelerate the sowing process, the consultancy said.

Soybean planting requires abundant rainfall and high soil moisture content, while dry weather slows the seedling process.

In Brazil, soybean planting starts in mid-September. But due to extremely dry weather in September, most farmers are waiting for sufficient rainfall during late October to begin sowing.

According to the general consensus among the agricultural analysts, Brazil is forecast to produce over 133 million mt of soybeans in 2020-21, an all-time high for the world's largest soybean producer and exporter.