Biofuel-driven crush expansion boosts soybean meal trade as Indonesia imports surge: FAS

Global soybean meal trade is on track for a third consecutive record in 2025-26, buoyed by expanded crushing in Brazil and the US underpinned by strong biofuel demand, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service's report released Aug. 12.

Meal exports are projected at 82 million mt in marketing year 2025-26 (Oct-Sept.), up 1% from the previous year and nearly a quarter higher than just three seasons ago.

While growth is expected to slow compared to double-digit rates in 2023/24 and 2024/25, this would mark the third consecutive year of record soybean meal exports.

The expansion has been fueled by large soybean harvests and biofuel policies including Brazil's B15 biodiesel blending mandate and US renewable fuels incentives that have encouraged processors to increase throughput, lifting both oil and meal output, the report highlighted.

Soybean meal prices have tumbled from around $550/mt in November 2023 to about $300/mt in July 2025, boosting affordability for feed buyers worldwide.

The meal import growth between MY 2023-24 and MY 2025-26 is expected to total nearly 10 million mt compared with the prior three-year average, with gains in markets such as Iran, the EU, Vietnam, and Mexico.

Indonesia demand climbs

Indonesia's soybean meal imports are forecast at 6.2 million mt in MY 2024-25 (Oct–Sep), up 200,000 mt from the previous month's estimate and 1.1 million mt above 2023-24, as poultry and aquaculture feed demand rises.

Brazil has cemented its position as Indonesia's top supplier since 2022-23, accounting for nearly 80% of imports in 2023-24.

The US remains the country's dominant soybean supplier for food use, with almost 90% market share, but holds just 3% of the soybean meal market.

Until 2022/23, Argentina was consistently Indonesia's top supplier of soybean meal. In that year, Argentina experienced a drought that decreased soybean meal production and exports by over 20% each. During that same period, Brazil increased soybean meal production, resulting in increased exports of nearly 30% between 2020/21 and 2022/23.

The USDA kept its 2025-26 US season-average soybean farm price forecast unchanged at $10.10/bushel. Soybean meal export prices, after months of decline, have ticked higher above $300/mt on firm sales.

Tariff Twist

US and Indonesia signed a reciprocal trade framework agreement July 22, in which a 19% levy was to be applied on Indonesian imports with with the possibility of further reductions for commodities "not naturally available or produced" in the US.

In return, Indonesia agreed to eliminate around 99% of tariff barriers on US food, agriculture, and industrial goods.

Under the deal, Indonesia is seeking lower tariffs for its nickel, cacao, coffee and palm oil -- commodities which the US does not produce.

Indonesian palm oil products account for 85% of US palm oil inflows.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Brazilian soybean meal FOB Paranaguá for September loading Aug. 11 at $304.01/mt, up $4.07/mt from Aug. 8.