Harvest delays and high production prospects create price backwardation in Ukrainian new crop corn

An anticipated delay in the harvest, combined with optimistic production prospects for the new crop in Ukraine, has led to a backwardation between the FOB prices for corn in October and December loading.

During the week, Ukrainian corn for FOB POC for October loading was traded at $220/mt for a 10,000 mt cargo, while the price for December loading on a Handy-size vessel was lower at $213/mt. Buyers for October loading were bidding at $218/mt, with sellers offering at $220/mt. In contrast, buyers were at $212/mt for December loading and sellers at $216/mt.

Traders have indicated that recent rains in the country will delay the harvest, resulting in a tighter supply for the new crop in October and potentially driving up prices. One trader from Ukraine said, "October looks short due to harvest delays from the rains," adding that the harvest could be delayed by up to three weeks.

Another trader echoed this sentiment: "The delay in harvest could be the reason for the high prices in October."

Conversely, the Foreign Service Attaché of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for the 2025/26 corn harvest in Ukraine to 34 million mt. This forecast has eased buyers' prices for December, as they anticipate a larger supply during that period.

However, sellers have mixed opinions regarding the high production forecasts.

One seller from Ukraine said, "The weather is good. It can easily reach 32-34 million mt," with another seller saying, "Yields vary significantly, but 32-33 million mt are achievable."

In contrast, a third trader expressed skepticism. "My view is somewhere around 28.5 million mt. They [USDA] reported 30.5 million in the last report, which seemed high to me. 34 million mt is honestly an unbelievable level."

According to traders, unlike Eastern Europe, heatwaves have had a minimal impact on Ukraine's production this season. The second trader added, "The key growing regions received adequate moisture during growth, and the corn belts look good."

Meanwhile, limited stocks of the old crop from Ukraine keep September loading prices elevated, with spot loading even higher. Platts assessed the price of Ukrainian corn FOB POC at $240/mt for loading from Sept. 4-18, as of August 8.