US shrimp trade halts as tariffs loom

US shrimp importers and Indian suppliers are pausing trading activity after the Trump administration has threatened to increase tariffs against the key shrimp-supplying country. The US President Donald Trump has threatened India with tariffs of 25%, plus an undisclosed penalty due to its trade ties with Russia, with duties taking place on Aug. 1.

India is the main supplier of shrimp to the US, having sent 133,447 mt of products from January to May, an increase of 20.2% from the same period in 2024. The volume represents 39.1% of the US's total 341,449 mt imported in the same period. According to an importer, Indian seafood exporters have decided to refrain from any trading activity until an official written statement from the Indian government is released. This includes avoiding closing any deals or making any shipments until an official notice is given.

"Some exporters are also suggesting to wait until August 1 to have a bit more certainty," the source said. "Others suggest starting with some plan B and calling traders and importers to see if it's possible to negotiate prices with companies that can survive the new tariffs."

Such a high tariff rate was not expected by analysts and market participants, as India came to the negotiating table from the beginning. Some still hope that a more favorable agreement could be reached, with the final tariff rate coming at up to 15%.

"Only the large packers and exporters, those with long-term contracts with major chains like Costco, Walmart and such, will be able to survive if the tariffs remain so high," the importer added.

A second US importer believes Ecuador could be the main winner if tariffs are confirmed at the 25% level, as distributors will seek other origins to source shrimp.

"Ecuadorians have enough shrimp inventories and are able to deliver to the US in 7 days," the importer said.

The uncertainty and constant threats make it a complicated time for the shrimp industry in India, as many companies rely on the US market to maintain activities. US shrimp import prices, in turn, have been more or less stable due to limited activity, a side effect of the uncertainty. The Platts' PDTO Shrimp CIF US assessment was $9,590/mt on July 30, steady from the previous day and on the week.

Moreover, it is not clear who will fill the gap left by India, which is largely specialized in processed shrimp presentations, making it difficult for other players to replace it in the short term.

"The outcome of these tariffs could reframe the global shrimp trade in the next years," an Ecuadorian exporter said.

From January to May, peeled shrimp represented 51% of total shrimp imports into the United States, of which India supplied 56%, according to S&P Global Energy data. Ecuador, while also having a large production capacity, is more focused in shell-on presentations.

"While it seems unlikely that Ecuador will significantly increase its market share in the US for peeled shrimp in 2025, there is a genuine opportunity for them to enhance their market presence and compete with India in the medium term, provided they make the necessary investments in processing infrastructure," Energy seafood analyst Max Bouratoglou said.

Also, US shrimp imports have been subject since 2024 to a combined antidumping and countervailing duties, with most Vietnamese companies facing 28.6% duties, India with 8.3%, Indonesia with 4.61% and Ecuador with 3.8%. A 25% tariff against India would bring the combined shrimp duties to 33.3%, while Ecuador is subject to a combined tariff rate of 13.8%.

"This situation presents a unique opportunity for Ecuador for two main reasons: first, the shift in import demand towards processed shrimp means Ecuador must enhance its processing capabilities to access the U.S. market; second, once a trade relationship changes, reverting to previous conditions is often challenging," Bouratoglou said. "The relative tariff advantage presents Ecuador with a chance to strengthen its position in the U.S. peeled shrimp market and likely maintain those gains in the foreseeable future," the analyst added.

Tariffs timeline summary

April 2: 10% baseline tariff announced, along with "reciprocal" tariffs for specific countries

April 9: "Reciprocal" tariffs paused for 90 days

July 2 – Tariff deal signed with Vietnam; tariffs set at 20% (from previously 46%)

July 7 – Trump extends reciprocal tariff pause to Aug. 1. Tariff letters sent to 14 countries

July 22 – Tariff deal signed with Indonesia; rate set at 19% (from previously 32%)

July 27 – Trade deal signed with the European Union, setting tariffs at 15%

July 30 – Trump announces tariffs above 25% against India