China maintains steady corn, soybean outlook for MY 2024-25

China's corn outlook for the marketing year 2024-25 (October-September) is unchanged this month, according to the latest Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate released June 12.

Corn imports for MY 2024-25 remain steady at 7 million mt, marking a 70% year-over-year decrease.

Production remains at 294.9 million mt, a 2% increase from the previous year, while consumption is stable at 299.6 million mt, up 1.6% year over year.

China's corn forecast for MY 2025-26 remains stable this month.

Imports are projected at 7 million mt, unchanged from the previous season.

Overall corn consumption is projected at 299.69 million mt, nearly unchanged from the previous season, while domestic production is forecast at 296.16 million mt, up 0.4% year over year.

Corn demand for feed has fallen slightly, while deep processing consumption has rebounded.

Inventories at northern and southern ports continue to decrease, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand.

Favorable weather conditions in Northeast China are promoting corn germination and growth, the Agricultural Ministry reported.

The ministry expects most of Northeast China to receive significant precipitation in the next 10 days, improving soil drought conditions.

Market participants continue to focus on the weather, according to a report by S&P Global Energy.

Steady soybean outlook

China's soybean outlook for MY 2024-25 (October-September) remains stable at 98.6 million mt, a 5.9% year-over-year drop, according to CASDE data published June 12.

Production remains unchanged at 20.65 million mt, a 0.9% decrease from 20.84 million mt in 2024, while consumption is forecast at 114.56 million mt, a 2% year-over-year fall.

The soybean outlook for MY 2025-26 remains unchanged this month.

Imports are stable at 95.8 million mt, a 2.8% drop from the prior season.

Total consumption is forecast at 114 million mt, a slight decrease of 0.4% compared to the prior season, while domestic production is projected to increase 2.1% year over year to 21.09 million mt.

According to the CASDE report, old beans in major production areas have bottomed out and overall market purchases and sales have slowed.

Platts assessed CFR China first-month soybeans at $442.39/mt, down $6.53/mt day over day on June 12.

China is the world's largest soybean importer.