African swine fever outbreak cuts European feed demand amid pig losses

African swine fever has weighed on European animal feed demand since April, according to Spanish feed traders and brokers.

According to a local report published May 8, the Official Veterinary Services of the Government of Catalonia confirmed that it had detected a new outbreak of ASF in wild boar, bringing the total number of outbreaks since the start to 49. To date, Catalonia has reported 306 positive cases in zone 2. Of them, three are considered primary and 46 are secondary.

"In the previous month, we have already started to see a reduction in the soybean meal consumption," a Spanish soybean meal trader said, referring to the ASF cases reported in the week ended May 9 and in January.

Catalonia's Department of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food confirmed 21 new positive cases of ASF in Spain. The wild boars were discovered near the past cases, in the same 6-kilometer radius around the initial outbreaks in the Barcelona region, Spanish local media reported Jan. 27.

"The recent ASF cases are now reducing the pig pipeline -- fewer pigs are being raised or kept -- which will lead to a decline in feed demand," a broker said.

The pig population in Aragon and Catalonia is expected to decline by 10%-20%.

Despite these ongoing cases, feed demand in the first quarter increased because farmers continued feeding pigs to higher weights, resulting in higher feed consumption, a second Spanish trader said.

He added that market estimates suggest a small reduction in Spain's feed demand, about 2% to 3%, primarily affecting pig feed in Catalonia.

A third trader estimated a decline of 5% to 8%, "but said this is debated."

The decline is likely more pronounced in Catalonia for pig feed, but overall feed demand for Spain is expected to decrease only slightly, a fourth trader said.

Many European countries are affected by African swine fever and are unable to export pork to international markets. As a result, these countries are competing with each other to sell pork within the EU instead of abroad, Spanish traders and brokers said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed ex-works Tarragona corn at Eur228/metric ton, down Eur1.50/mt May 12, and EXW Tarragona soybean meal at Eur379.75/mt, down 50 euro cent/mt day over day.