Center-South Brazil H1 April sugar production decreased 33% on year: survey

Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 650 thousand mt in the first half of April, a decrease of 33% year on year, an S&P Global Platts survey of 11 analysts showed April 26.

Of the 11 analysts surveyed, two large trading houses estimated the total cane crush would be between 9.0 million mt and 22.7 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 15.95 million mt, a 29.1% drop year on year.

"The drop in cane crushed, sugar output, and ethanol produced can be explained by a two-week delay to the start of the harvest because of poor cane maturation and less mills in operation as of April 16 compared to last year," said a Sao Paulo-based trader. "There were around 20-30 less mills in operation as of April 16 compared to last year."

Weather in the Center-South was favorable for crushing during H1 April, with an estimated 0.6 days lost to rain and about 150-160 mills active as of April 16.

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 38.0%, down from 40.15% a year earlier. Although Brazilian producers were taking advantage of the recent high prices of hydrous ethanol, long-term expectations are for mills to continue to maximize their sugar production, given the increased profitability of sugar production over ethanol production.

Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent at 14.75 cents/lb on April 26. The May NY11 sugar futures contract settled April 26 at 17.17 cents/lb, providing a 2.42 cents/lb premium to hydrous ethanol in raw sugar equivalent.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 111.4 kg/mt, a decrease of 1.3% year on year.

Total ethanol output from sugar cane is expected to be 689 million liters, a decrease of 23.5% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 573 million liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 22.8% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H1 April was expected to be 116 million liters, a decrease of 26.6% year on year, according to the survey.