Platts Thai WR prices hit over 2.5-year low on weak demand, fresh crop arrivals

Thai 5% broken white rice plummeted to an over two-and-a-half-year low on March 19, amid sluggish international export demand and fresh crop arrivals.

Platts assessed Thai 5% broken white rice prices at $398/mt FOB on March 19, lowest level since July 26, 2022, when prices stood at $394/mt FOB.

Despite the decline in prices, Thai prices remained among the highest for 5% WR among Asian origins on March 19 -- Vietnamese rice was at $389/mt FOB, Pakistani rice at $392/mt FOB, and Myanmar rice was at $400/mt FOB FCL.

Market participants said that Thai rice prices were on a downtrend under pressure from the ongoing harvest of the new crop.

A Thai exporter noted that the influx of freshly harvested rice has weighed on prices, while a market source indicated that limited buying interest is an additional factor contributing to the downward trend.

Buyers are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating further price drops in Thailand as the harvest progresses.

The local price for 5% broken WR fell Baht 10-20/100 kg ($2.97/mt-5.95/mt) on March 19, according to the Thai Rice Millers Association. The baht depreciated by 0.2% day over day against the US dollar, which also pressured the offers.

"There's nothing happening. It's so quiet despite Ramadan. I even have a good offer from India, but there's no interest from buyers," a trader said.

Another exporter explained that the new crop is primarily arriving from the central plains of Thailand, where nearly 50% of the harvest has been completed. "The harvest is expected to conclude by early April, potentially increasing supply further and keeping prices under pressure. Then I expect prices to firm up."

Given the current market dynamics, it remains to be seen how quickly buyer interest will return and whether prices will stabilize as the new crop continues to enter the market.

Thailand is forecast to export 7.50 million mt of rice in the marketing year 2024-25 (January-December), down 24.17% year over year, according to US Department of Agriculture.