Rising diesel prices, Middle East war hit Brazil soybean, corn farmers

Brazilian soybean farmers are feeling the effects of rising diesel prices driven by the war in the Middle East and rising global oil prices, amid the ongoing harvest, multiple Brazilian farmers said. Besides soybeans, farmers are also concerned that the planting of the second corn crop, which is currently underway, will be impacted.

Brazil imports about 30% of its diesel requirements, and domestic diesel prices are rising due to international energy price increases, industry analysts said.

Higher diesel prices are likely to impact domestic grain transport and the cost of agricultural inputs, a Brazil-based soybean trader said, adding that these could gradually lead to higher production prices.

"Diesel fuel occupies a central position in the cost structure of agricultural activity, but also in several production chains essential to the population's subsistence. It fuels agricultural equipment, enables the transport of inputs and ensures that production reaches consumption centers and ports," Aprosoja, Brazilian Association of Soybean Growers, said in a statement on March 11.

The ongoing Middle East conflict has raised fears of higher energy costs globally, with crude futures rallying at the open on March 8, disrupting energy infrastructure in the region.

Diesel prices in Brazil's central-western and southern regions have already increased by about Real 1/liter, with some cases reaching up to Reals 1.50/liter, market participants based in Brazil said.

Soybean harvest underway

Brazilian farmers are currently harvesting soybeans nationwide. In marketing year 2025-26 (January-December), Brazil is expected to harvest a record 178 million metric tons of soybeans, up 3.8% year over year, Brazil's agricultural agency Conab data showed Feb. 12.

"The [input] costs may be less overall. But the sudden jump in diesel prices may likely push up costs suddenly," a farmer based in Mato Grosso said.

Soybean harvest in MY 2025-26 reached 50.6% of the estimated area as of March 7, according to Conab data. The harvest is lagging year over year, as farmers harvested 60.9% of the area in the corresponding period last year.

According to Brazilian farmers, the rise in diesel prices has weighed on their ability to perform harvest operations, and soybean farmers are also facing transportation issues.

"Currently, farmers are also transporting soybeans to the market and are facing issues as some fuel suppliers have limited sales," a farmer based in Parana said.

For MY 2025-26, Conab projects Brazil's soybean exports at 112.2 million mt, up 3.7% year over year.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos at $437.64/mt on March 11, up $4.50/mt day over day. Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB Paranagua at $435.07/mt on March 11, up $4.51/mt day over day.

Corn planting under concern

Brazilian corn farmers are facing challenges as the second corn planting is underway while they are also harvesting the summer corn crop, local farmers said.

The second corn crop accounts for the majority of the country's corn production.

"The planting of the winter crop is underway. The rise in diesel prices is likely to impact some planting activities across the nation," a farmer based in Mato Grosso said.

Brazil's second corn planting for MY 2025-26 (March-February) reached 75.9% of the total nationwide area as of March 7, down from 83.1% in MY 2024-25, Conab reported. The first corn harvest for MY 2025-26 reached 29.5% of the expected area as of March 7, down from 34.5% at the same time last season.

Conab expects Brazil to harvest 138.4 million mt of corn in MY 2025-26, down 1.9% year over year. For the first corn crop, output is seen at 26.7 million mt, up 7.1% year over year, and the second crop production is estimated at 109.3 million mt, down 3.5% year over year, Conab data showed.

Besides rising diesel prices, farmers are also concerned about higher fertilizer prices globally.

"The winter [corn] crop planting is underway. A rise in fertilizer prices now will also impact overall input costs," a farmer based in Mato Grosso do Sul said.

In 2026, Brazil is expected to import 2.99 million mt of urea, down 0.5% year over year, S&P Global Energy CERA data showed. CERA has forecast Brazil to import 6.36 million mt of nitrogen-based fertilizers, down 2.6% year over year.

For MY 2025-26, Conab projects Brazil's corn exports at 46.5 million mt, up 11.7% year over year.

Platts assessed Brazil corn FOB Santos at $224.59/mt on March 10, up $3.84/mt day over day.