EU pork exporters brace for tougher 2026 as China tariffs bite, Brazil competition increases

EU pork exports to destinations outside the bloc rose slightly in 2025, with China and the UK the largest buyers, but exporters entered 2026 facing fresh pressure from higher Chinese import tariffs and intensifying competition from Brazil, according to European Commission figures.

The EU's 27 member states exported 4.3 million metric tons of pork and byproducts to non-EU countries in 2025 by product weight, up from 4.2 million mt in 2024, the report said. It added that EU export volumes have been broadly stable over the past three years but remain well below the 2020 peak of 6.23 million mt, when African swine fever-driven shortages in China lifted demand.

China, UK dominate demand

China was the top destination for EU pork in 2025, accounting for about a quarter of shipments at 1,069,909 mt, followed by the UK at 856,102 mt, the report said. Other key importers were South Korea (262,882 mt), Japan (256,731 mt), Vietnam (180,275 mt), the US (107,927 mt), Australia (87,440 mt) and Taiwan (77,934 mt), with the rest of the world taking 1,399,151 mt, the report said.

EU exports came under pressure at the start of 2026 after China imposed import tariffs of up to 19.8% for the next five years, while expected rising competition from Brazil in global meat markets.

Spain leads EU export pack

Within the EU, Spain led pork exports to third countries in 2025 at 1,340,237 mt, followed by the Netherlands (665,555 mt) and Denmark (632,365 mt), the report said. Germany, historically the EU's largest pig producer, exported 334,895 mt in 2025 and remains constrained by ASF-linked restrictions, down from more than 1 million mt/year in the years before 2020, PigProgress said.

However, the European pork export landscape faces a significant shift as Japan, a high-value destination, has suspended imports from Spain following ASF concerns, according to the USDA.

The suspension, effective Nov. 28, 2025, removes a major supplier from Japan's import pool, as Spain provides around 15% of Japan's total pork imports and roughly 30% of its frozen pork volumes, FAS Tokyo said.

The move is expected to reshape European and North American pork trade flows as Japanese buyers diversify sourcing to maintain stable import volumes, potentially benefiting other EU member states and North American competitors.

Rising Brazilian pork output and a forecast increase in 2026 exports are poised to intensify competition for EU pork in key import markets, as Brazil benefits from ample feed, a weak real, and an ASF-free sanitary status.

The outlook comes as parts of Europe face ASF-linked trade disruptions, supporting demand for alternative origins, FAS said.

Brazil's pork production is forecast to rise 3% in 2026 to 4.9 million mt carcass weight equivalent, supported by higher slaughter, stronger feed availability and investments made after "very positive" producer margins in 2025, FAS Brasilia said.

​Brazil was the world's fourth-largest pork producer in 2025, behind China, the EU, and the US, and the third-largest exporter.

Export flows are increasingly concentrated in Asia, with the Philippines the top destination in 2025 after it surpassed China.

Brazil exported 433,595 mt CWE of pork to the Philippines in 2025, up 56.6% year over year, accounting for 25.3% of Brazil's total pork exports and supplying over 66% of Philippine pork and pork product imports.

China remained Brazil's second-largest pork market in 2025, taking 175,600 mt CWE, while Japan was Brazil's fourth-largest destination in 2025 at over 148,000 mt CWE, up 23.3% year over year.

Brazil's sanitary positioning is a key advantage as there have been no ASF cases in the country since 1988.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the EU pork marker for pork bellies unchanged at Eur3,090/metric ton FCA Barcelona March 4.

Platts assessed CFR North Asia pork belly up $20/mt day over day at $4,620/mt March 4, partially tracking a stronger won against the dollar.