Escalating Gulf conflict likely to weigh on beef exports from India, Australia

The escalating conflict in the Gulf is likely to impact beef exports from Australia and India as air freight to the Middle East has halted completely, and shipping diversions are increasing costs for suppliers, multiple beef exporters said March 3.

Iran and Israel are not major players in global agricultural and metals markets, but their proximity to key sea routes has created uncertainty for buyers and suppliers, according to industry analysts.

Shippers could make strategic rerouting of ships, "tightening tonnage availability, extending voyage durations, and materially altering voyage economics and regional arbitrage flows," said Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping and metals at S&P Global Energy.

The Australian Livestock Exporters' Council (ALEC) said in a statement on March 2 that it was working closely with exporters and the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry to consider any potential impacts.

"We understand there are no consignments on the water en route to the Middle East. Our exporter members are currently monitoring the situation very closely to determine the next steps for planned shipments", ALEC said in the statement.

Exports to MENA

Australia's total beef and veal exports to the Middle East and North Africa region reached a record high of 40,522 metric tons in 2025, up 10.6% from a year before, the government data showed.

MENA continued to emerge as a premium destination for Australian beef and lamb, with chilled beef representing 84% of all Australian beef exports to the UAE, industry body Meat & Livestock Australia said during an industry conference in Dubai on Feb. 6.

India is a key supplier of beef and poultry to countries in the Middle East. "Currently, most traders are cautious as there are severe concerns over trade routes. Most of the shipments pass through the Hormuz Strait," a beef exporter based in India said.

In 2025, India sold 93,485 mt of beef to the UAE, up 5.9% from a year ago, according to the country's Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority. The country sent 71,672 mt of beef to Iraq in 2025, down 44% from a year ago, and 75,158 mt to Saudi Arabia, down 4.5% year over year.

Oman imported 16,442 mt of beef from India, down 15.5% year over year, while Iran bought 2,164 mt, down 61% year over year, the data showed.

"Since it's the first few days, there is still confusion over most of the situation. However, if the conflict persists for some time, freight rates will increase, along with insurance costs," another beef exporter based in Mumbai said.

However, the impact on Brazilian shipments is seen as minimal as exports from the country accounted for less than 5% of its annual outflows in 2025, according to Brazilian beef exporters.

"Brazil's beef exports to the Middle East are very small. However, a rise in escalation may dent shipments to the region," a beef exporter based in Brazil's Mato Grosso said.

Brazil exported 62,705 mt of beef to Saudi Arabia in 2025, up 14.5% year over year, according to data from Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade. Brazil also sold 46,965 mt of beef to the UAE, down 63.6% year over year, the data showed.

In 2025, Brazil sent 6,208 mt of beef to Iraq, down 30.2% from a year ago; 5,271 mt to Qatar, up 3.2% from a year ago and 4,890 mt to Kuwait, up 49.4% year over year, the data showed.

Platts assessed the Brazil beef marker at $6,726/mt on March 2, up $50/mt day over day. The 90CL beef FCA Australia was assessed at $7,718/mt on March 2, down $73/mt from a day ago.