USDA cuts South American soybean supply projections for 2021-22

The US Department of Agriculture has cut the Brazilian and Argentinian soybean output projections from previous estimates, it said Feb. 9.

In its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report, the USDA set its production estimate at 134 million mt for Brazil soybeans in crop year 2021-22 (September-August), down 5 million mt from January estimates. While the Argentinian soybean production forecast has also been reduced by 1.5 million mt on previous estimates to 45 million mt, the report said.

Global soybean production is reduced 8.7 million mt to 363.9 million on drought conditions in South America, the USDA said.

Platts Analytics sees Brazil's soybean output in 2021-22 in a 131 million-133 million mt range and Argentina's in a 45 million-47 million mt range.

China's soybean demand in 2021-22 has also been reduced by 3 million mt from January estimates to 97 million mt, the USDA's report said.

Lower supplies and higher prices reduce global meal demand, particularly for China, where soybean crush was also lowered by 3 million mt to 94 million mt, the USDA said.

For US soybeans, 2021-22 production held steady at 4.435 billion bushels (120.8 million mt) with January estimates, but down 219 million bushels year on year.

Soybean harvested area for the US is estimated at 86.3 million acres, steady with the previous WASDE report.

The US soybean yield forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August) has been estimated at 51.4 bushel/acre, unchanged from the previous estimate in January.

The USDA sees the US soybean crush for the 2021-22 marketing year at 2.215 billion bushels (60.3 million mt), up 25 million bushels from previous estimates.

Soybean crush is forecast higher from last month on favorable crush margins and improving prospects for soybean meal exports, the USDA said.

Soybean exports have remained unchanged from the previous estimate at 2.050 billion bushels (55.8 million mt), the report said. But 2021-22 ending stocks are projected at 325 million bushels (8.8 million mt), down 25 million bushels on previous estimate, the USDA said.

Soybean complex

US soybean meal production estimates for the 2021-22 marketing year are forecast at 51.9 million st, down 400,000 st on January estimates, while the ending stocks estimate remained steady at 400,000 st, the USDA said.

The soybean meal price was forecast at $410/st, up $35/st month on month, according to the WASDE report.

US soybean oil production was estimated at 26.2 billion lb, up 295 million lb on last month's estimate, while the soybean oil price forecast was up 1 cent from January estimates at 65 cents/lb.