Agriculture, Energy Transition, Biofuel, Renewables, Vegetable Oils
January 09, 2026
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks near 3 mil mt by end-2025, highest since 2019: survey
HIGHLIGHTS
Exports seen rising 2.9% MOM in Dec
Indonesia's levy expectations support prices
Malaysia's palm oil stocks were seen at 2.97 million metric tons by the end of December, indicating the largest inventory buildup since January 2019 at the world's second-largest producer, according to a poll of 10 analysts, traders, and growers by Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Jan. 9.
Palm oil production is expected to fall to 1.77 million mt in December, down 8.7% from the previous month, as yields fell during the off-season, according to the survey.
Exports grew in December to 1.245 million mt, up 2.9% month over month, the survey said.
| S&P Global Energy survey | Dec 2025 median | Dec 2025 range | Nov 2025 (MPOB) | Change |
| Production | 1.77 | 1.75-1.81 | 1.94 | -8.7% |
| Imports | 0.04 | 0.03-0.042 | 0.023 | 73.9% |
| Exports | 1.24 | 1.23-1.3 | 1.21 | 2.9% |
| Local consumption | 0.405 | 0.33-0.47 | 0.419 | -3.3% |
| Ending stocks | 2.974 | 2.94-3.03 | 2.84 | 4.6% |
All figures in million metric tons
Source: S&P Global Energy, MPOB data
Despite expectations of better supplies, crude palm oil futures made steady gains through the first full week of 2026, tracking strength in related vegetable oils alongside bargain buying, with mild support coming from a slightly weaker ringgit against the US dollar, a Kuala Lumpur-based analyst told Platts.
The benchmark crude palm oil contract for March delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.25% to MR 4,078/mt ($997.54) during the afternoon trade Jan. 9. The contract gained 1.64% in the week started Jan. 5.
Gains could be limited, however, by weaker demand from India, the world's largest palm oil buyer, with December imports falling to an eight-month low amid soft winter consumption and greater use of competing oils, trade data from Singapore-based Saveraa International showed.
"If Indonesian export levy increases, it will be supportive for Malaysian palm oil export potential," said Anilkumar Bagani, commodity research head at Mumbai-based brokerage Sunvin Group.
Government executives in Indonesia, the largest producer and exporter of palm oil, said Jakarta is looking to increase its palm oil export levy to support the country's rising biodiesel mandate, which is funded by export revenues, according to local media reports Jan. 8.
Platts assessed the price of crude palm oil FOB Indonesia at $1,060/mt Jan. 8, unchanged day over day.
