COMMODITY TRACKER: 5 charts to watch this week

This week's commodity markets reflect geopolitical pressures, with Singapore bunker sales rising amid rerouted vessels and India seeking alternative ammonia sources. European biodiesel premiums have turned negative for the first time, while soybean market face pressure from South American harvest delays

1. Singapore bunker demand rises amid Middle East disruptions

What's happening? Singapore's bunker fuel sales reached 4.99 million metric tons in March, up 12.6% year over year, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data released April 6. Middle East shipping disruptions redirected vessels to Singapore's Strait of Malacca. Low sulfur fuel oil dominated at 2.46 million mt (49.5%), followed by high sulfur fuel oil at 2.12 million mt (42.5%). Bunkering events totaled 9,355, with bulk carriers accounting for 2,630 refueling operations.

What's next? Market participants anticipate that overall bunkering volumes may decline later as tanker owners ballast west due to limited cargo opportunities in the East and Middle East. Meanwhile, Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority reaffirmed that adequate bunker supply remains available. Premiums for Singapore-delivered 0.5%S bunker fuel averaged $78.49/mt in March, up significantly from February's $21.40/mt, reflecting backwardation and volatility that have discouraged inventory holding among traders.

2. Indian ammonia prices rise as global supply shortage bites

What's happening? Prices for ammonia delivered to India have increased as global supply options narrow, according to importers. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off most Middle East supplies, forcing importers to seek replacement tons from China and Southeast Asia, according to the ammonia buyers. Platts assessed both ammonia CFR East Coast India and West Coast India prices at $830/mt April 13. India's ammonia imports totaled 2.622 million mt in 2025, with 2.066 million mt sourced from the Middle East, according to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts.

What's next? Ammonia traders are monitoring supply dynamics ahead of India's peak fertilizer demand season, which begins in June, market sources indicate. Potential Chinese ammonia export limitations or bans could further constrain supplies, while planned maintenance in Southeast Asia in May will reduce availability, an Asian trader said. Traders are also watching India's latest urea import tender for 2.5 million metric tons, with delivery by June 14 and closing April 15.

3. European biodiesel premiums turn negative for first time

What's happening? European crop-based biodiesel premiums fell below zero April 2 for the first time since Platts launched assessments in April 2021, as Middle East conflict drove ICE LSGO futures to an all-time high of $1,569.50/mt. FAME 0 biodiesel at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell $106/mt below gasoil, while RME premium was assessed at a $62/mt discount. Front-month gasoil futures surged over 100%, or nearly $820/mt, since the conflict began. Europe consumed 354,000 barrels/day of biodiesel in 2025, constrained by B7 blending limits. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

What's next? EU officials and industry groups advocate increasing biodiesel blending mandates from typical B7 limits to 10% for passenger vehicles and higher for heavy-duty sectors to unlock crisis-mitigation potential and ease fossil fuel shortages. The European Commission called for wider biofuel uptake March 31. However, traders remain uncertain about the likelihood of implementation, as discretionary demand has yet to materialize amid market participants' wait for policy clarity and behavioral shifts.

4. South American soybean meal premiums rise on harvest delays

What's happening? South American soybean meal port premiums are rising unexpectedly, driven by harvest delays in Argentina and short covering in Brazil. Argentina's May FOB Up River basis reached $3/short ton above CBOT, matching 2025 premium, while Brazil's FOB Paranaguá climbed to $7/st from $5/st. Outright prices are up 8–8.7% year over year regionally. Argentina faces rain-induced harvest interruptions, tightening physical supply, while Brazil confronts logistical challenges and higher freight costs, partly due to the Middle East conflict, forcing traders to cover short positions.

What's next? Premiums may remain elevated if Argentina's harvest delays persist and physical supply stays tight, market sources indicate. In Brazil, short covering could support premiums through May, but as harvest nears completion and logistical issues ease, basis may soften. Brazil's 2025-26 soybean harvest was 79% complete as of April 1, below last year's 85% but near the five-year average of 81%, per S&P Global Energy CERA, which forecasts record production of 182 million mt. Argentina's estimated output is 48.50 million mt.

5. Vietnam fragrant rice prices hit four-month high

What's happening? Vietnamese fragrant rice prices reached their highest level in nearly four months as exporters withheld fresh offers to honor existing contracts and replenish inventories amid elevated production costs, market sources told Platts. Platts assessed Vietnam Fragrant 5% rice at $436/mt FOB on April 6, up 1.4% day over day and 6.6% month over month, the highest since Dec. 16, 2025, when priced at $440/mt FOB.

What's next? Vietnam's winter-spring harvest concludes by late May, with the summer-autumn crop beginning in June. The crop transition and higher input costs are expected to support prices near term as buyers secure shipments through June, according to market participants. Vietnam's rice exports are projected at 7.6 million mt for the marketing year 2025-26, down 5.7% year over year, while milled rice production is forecast at 26 million mt, a 2.8% decline year over year, according to CERA.

Reporting and analysis by Mia Pei, Max Lin, Uzma Gulbahar, Mollie Gorman, Jose Roberto Gomes, Chirag Aggarwal.