The oil market is closing out 2019 with a smaller geopolitical risk premium despite the September attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility exposing a staggering supply vulnerability.
Greg Priddy, Stratfor's director of global energy and Middle East, argues the oil market can no longer hold onto a risk premium, between hedging and the responsiveness of US shale production. He said a sharp premium would only return in the event of a major and prolonged oil supply disruption.
Priddy walked us through other potential geopolitical hot spots next year, including a tinderbox in the Middle East, OPEC's oversupply woes, the "festering" US/China trade dispute, and the US presidential election.