Fossil fuels would shrink to roughly half of total primary energy supply in 2050, from about 77% in 2020, if the world meets the minimum Paris Agreement target of 2C warming, according to the latest projections by S&P Global Platts Analytics.
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The demand shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic has slashed 2020 emissions far more aggressively than the 2C pathway, but massive uncertainties loom regarding the demand recovery as well as the trajectories of both fossil fuels and renewables.
An eventual economic recovery from the pandemic will likely cause fossil fuel's share of the energy mix to expand from 2020-2025. Analytics sees renewables becoming increasingly cost-competitive after 2025, meaning they will grow faster in the long run than fossil fuels, particularly in a 2C scenario.