London — Global deepwater oil production was expected to grow 700,000 b/d this year to hit a record high of more than 10 million b/d, according to estimates by Norwegian research group Rystad.

With a number of large fields starting up in Brazil and US Gulf of Mexico, deepwater liquid production will reach 10.3 million b/d in 2019, Rystad said Friday.

In addition to Brazil and the US, Angola, Nigeria and Norway will continue to be the largest deepwater producers, Rystad said.

Deepwater projects have attracted nearly half of global exploration investment over the past decade and have delivered a similar share of new production volumes.

As global oil production from maturing shallow water areas such as the North Sea declines, new offshore volumes were expected to become increasingly reliant on flows from deepwater fields.

The International Energy Agency has estimated that the share of deepwater in total offshore production will rise to 30% in 2040, from 23% currently.

Brazil will be by far the largest source of future deepwater growth, the IEA estimated, by nearly doubling its current output by 2040.

Last month, UK energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicted that total annual deepwater capital expenditure would rise to nearly $60 billion by 2022 from around $50 billion currently.

Most of the new deepwater spending will be directed at major projects in Brazil, Guyana and Mozambique, Wood Mac said.

It said, however, that the expected rising spend on deepwater projects could accelerate a return to cyclical cost inflation in the offshore sector.

Rig day rates, for example, could double by the early 2020s, according to Wood Mac, as deepwater rig capacity was expected to fall.

-- Robert Perkins, robert.perkins@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Dan Lalor, newsdesk@spglobal.com