One year on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European gas market is unrecognizable compared with how it looked before Feb. 24, 2022. But fears that Russia's "weaponization" of energy -- as it is regularly described by the west -- would lead to shortages, especially of gas, have so far failed to materialize. True, Russian gas supply by pipeline to Europe has fallen to a trickle, but in its place LNG exporters and Norwegian producers stepped up to help fill the gap and storage sites were filled to more than 95% of capacity. Warm weather has also meant stocks are still at historically high levels for the time of year.
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In oil, the discount of Russia's key Urals export grade to Dated Brent soared to record highs of over $40/b in mid-2022 and the value of Urals fell again after the G7's price cap and EU embargo on Russian crude kicked in. High energy prices and redirecting oil flows have given the Russian economy some resilience, but there are signs that sanctions and increased spending are having an impact.
Click here to get a closer look (updated February 2023)