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Argentina's MY 2022-23 wheat planting forecast down 9% on year at 6.1 mil hectares: BAGE

Highlights

Soil moisture poor across 44% of sown area

16% of crop in good to excellent condition, 25% poor

USDA pegs MY 2022-23 output falling to 18.5 million mt

Argentina's wheat planting forecast has been reduced to 6.1 million hectares for the marketing year 2022-23 (December-November) from 6.2 million hectares earlier due to poor soil moisture, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a report July 27.

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The acreage is likely to be down nearly 9% year on year from 6.7 million hectares in MY 2021-22.

The exchange said soil moisture was poor in around 44% of the total sown area so far, against 30% the previous year. Around 16% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, while 25% was in poor condition, it added.

The crop condition was seen poor in Northwest Argentina, North Central Córdoba and South Córdoba.

Due to poor rainfall, yields are likely to be lower and the harvest was seen smaller in MY 2022-23. The US Department of Agriculture has projected Argentina's wheat crop in MY 2022-23 at 18.5 million mt, down from 22.5 million mt in MY 2021-22.

Potential trade impact

A likely fall in Argentina's wheat output may assume significance as global wheat supply is seen tightening due to the Russia-Ukraine war and weather concerns in the EU.

Argentina's wheat exports are also seen declining in MY 2022-23. The USDA has pegged Argentina's wheat exports in MY 2022-23 at 12.4 million mt, against 16.2 million mt in MY 2021-22.

Argentina had emerged as a major supplier of wheat in late 2021 as wheat export prices rose sharply. However, it limited exports in January to keep domestic prices in check.

Usually, Argentina is a key supplier of wheat to other South American nations.