Customer Logins

Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.

Customer Logins

My Logins

All Customer Logins
S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • S&P Global
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices
  • S&P Global Engineering Solutions
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • S&P Global Mobility
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • S&P Global Ratings
  • S&P Global Sustainable1
Close
Discover more about S&P Global’s offerings.
Investor Relations
  • Investor Relations Overview
  • Presentations
  • Investor Fact Book
  • News Releases
  • Quarterly Earnings
  • SEC Filings & Reports
  • Executive Committee
  • Merger Information
  • Governance
  • Stock & Dividends
  • Shareholder Services
  • Contact
English
  • Español
  • 中文网站
  • Português
  • 한국어
  • हिंदी
  • English (Australia)
  • 日本語
Support
  • Get Support
  • System Notifications
  • Delivery Platforms
  • Regulatory Engagement
Login
  • Commodity Insights Login
  • Access IHS Markit Products
Register
  • Commodities
  • Products & Services
  • Methodology
  • Market Insights
  • Energy Transition
  • Events
  • S&P Global
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices
  • S&P Global Engineering Solutions
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • S&P Global Mobility
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • S&P Global Ratings
  • S&P Global Sustainable1
  • Oil Upstream LNG Natural Gas Electric Power Coal Shipping Petrochemicals Metals Agriculture
    Latest in Commodities
    Listen: The future of naphtha and diesel flows after EU sanctions

    What will replace Russian diesel and naphtha flows to Europe after EU sanctions take effect on 5...

    UK's January road fuel sales recover to highest for month since 2020

    The UK's road fuel sales recovered from seasonal lows in January to hit their highest average for...

    China to cut clean oil product exports in Feb amid strong domestic demand

    China's refineries will cut clean oil product exports in February as domestic demand in January was...

  • Oil LNG Natural Gas Electric Power Coal Shipping Petrochemicals Metals Agriculture Energy Transition
    I Need
    Market Insights and Analytics Commodity Prices and Essential Market Data Real-Time News, Prices and Analysis Maps and Geospatial Data Forward Curves and Risk Valuation Data
    Data and Partner Delivery
  • Our Methodology Methodology & Specifications Price Assessments Subscriber Notes Price Symbols Symbol Search & Directories Corrections Complaints
    References
    Market On Close Index Sourced Data (Survey) Methodology Review & Change MOC Participation Guidelines Holiday SEE ALL REFERENCE TOOLS
  • Latest News Headlines All Topics Videos Podcasts Special Reports Infographics Insights Magazine Insight Blog    Research & Analysis Top 250 Rankings   
    Latest in Market Insights
  • PLATTS ANALYTICS PRODUCT PLATFORM
    ACCESS ANALYTICS HUB
  • All Events Webinars Conferences Methodology Education Training and eLearning Forums Global Energy Awards    Global Metals Awards   
    Featured Events
    Forums London Energy Forum
    • 27 Feb 2023
    • London
    Forums CERAWeek
    • 27 Feb 2023
    • London
    Conferences ,Forums FUJCON 2023
    • 13 Mar 2023
    • Fujairah, UAE

How accurate are your yield forecasts?

15 February 2023 Paul Hughes

Getting commodity markets right is difficult under any circumstances. However, getting them right without really good supply/demand forecasts is nearly impossible. While demand can have its variations, the supply side traditionally holds the biggest swings in an agricultural commodities. The vagaries of weather can cause production to swing from boom to bust quickly. This is why we ask, "How accurate are your yield forecasts?"

Production simply comes from two factors: 1) planted area and 2) yield per area of land. Ten months a year we undertake a massive survey process where we ask producers and agribusiness about their expectations on the supply side of US crop production (planted area and yield).

Up until now, we have always thought we are pretty good at it. Now we have the data to prove we are the best in the business.

For many years, the new service Reuters has released a poll of many market participants' expectations on production and yields prior to the USDA WASDE report. Our team thought it would be worthwhile to see how our forecasts stacked up against others in the industry when it comes to forecasting yields during the most important part of the US growing season. We liked what we saw.

Corn and Soybeans
Since 2013, there are 17 different commodity analysts and forecasting services that have submitted US corn and soybean yield forecasts on a regular basis (at least seven of ten years). We objectively measured the accuracy of those forecasts during the most meaningful USDA reports of the year—August, September, and October.

To do this we calculated the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) versus the end-of-year actual yields from the USDA for each analyst. MAPE is the gold standard for measuring accuracy, as it calculates how consistently close one is to the "truth data", in this case, the final USDA yield. One should use absolute error, not allowing the positives and negatives to cancel each other out. Two forecasts could be off 10% high and 10% low. Using average simple error, they would look very precise, zero error. However, using MAPE it would show that it was 10% off on average, not so good.

Below are the results for all entities that provided data to the USDA for seven or more years since 2013.

S&P Global is the most accurate in forecasting corn and soybean yields as measured by combined MAPE over the most recent 10-year period. Relying on our forecasts gives our clients a significant edge in defining the supply side of the market. This is a big leg up in solving the ever-changing puzzle that is agricultural commodity markets.



This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

Previous Agribusiness Post All Agribusiness Next Agribusiness Post

Related Posts

  • US EPA initiates court-mandated sulfoxaflor consultation
  • EU-Mercosur trade deal relaunch brings back human rights, sustainability concerns
  • Gene-edited crops market growth spurred by regulatory progress and approvals
  • EU Council calls for F2F pesticide reduction impact re-assessment
  • EU glyphosate approval extended by one year
  • EU agrees on "groundbreaking" law to ban agri-food imports contributing to deforestation
  • Global crop protection market provisionally up 6% in 2022
  • Biostimulants market growing strongly at 10% per annum

Explore

RELATED INDUSTRIES & TOPICS
  • Agribusiness
  • Agribusiness Strategy
  • Crop Production
  • Crop science

Learn more about Agribusiness

Visit our site
Learn more
Subscribe to RSS Feed

Follow Us

Dec 31
SPGlobalAgri@SPGlobalAgri

𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝘆 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿! 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - A new journey for a new year! This account will be retired tomorrow. To keep up to da… https://t.co/3oV03q8zt6

Dec 31
Dec 30
SPGlobalAgri@SPGlobalAgri

𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀! 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - This account will be retired in 2 days. To keep up to date with the latest… https://t.co/8ndUelbCeA

Dec 30
Dec 29
SPGlobalAgri@SPGlobalAgri

𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀! 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - This account will be retired in 3 days. To keep up to date with the latest… https://t.co/vEy5KSqAaV

Dec 29
Dec 28
SPGlobalAgri@SPGlobalAgri

𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀! 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 - This account will be retired in 4 days. To keep up to date with the latest… https://t.co/Csc160u0et

Dec 28
{"items" : [ {"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fcommodityinsights%2fen%2fci%2fresearch-analysis%2fhow-accurate-are-your-yield-forecasts.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fcommodityinsights%2fen%2fci%2fresearch-analysis%2fhow-accurate-are-your-yield-forecasts.html&text=How+accurate+are+your+yield+forecasts%3f+%7c+S%26P+Global+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fcommodityinsights%2fen%2fci%2fresearch-analysis%2fhow-accurate-are-your-yield-forecasts.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=How accurate are your yield forecasts? | S&P Global &body=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fcommodityinsights%2fen%2fci%2fresearch-analysis%2fhow-accurate-are-your-yield-forecasts.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=How+accurate+are+your+yield+forecasts%3f+%7c+S%26P+Global+ http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fcommodityinsights%2fen%2fci%2fresearch-analysis%2fhow-accurate-are-your-yield-forecasts.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"} ]}
Filter Sort
  • About S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • Media Center
  • Advertisers
  • Locations
  • Get Support
  • Contact Us
  • Careers
  • Corporate Responsibility
  • History
  • Investor Relations
  • Leadership
  • Glossary
  • © 2023 by S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved.
  • Terms of Use
  • Do Not Sell My Personal Information
  • Privacy Policy & Cookie Notice
  • Site Map