Watch: Market Movers Global, July 1-5: UK, Iran elections to shake up energy and carbon markets

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This week, the oil market will be closely monitoring developments following Iran’s presidential election. Any resulting changes in Iran's international relations and potential adjustments to sanctions on its oil will be under scrutiny, as they could significantly impact global oil supply and prices.

With the UK's general election approaching and a potential victory anticipated for the Labour Party, concerns are rising among the North Sea oil industry and trade unions. Labour's tax and licensing plans aim for more taxation of hydrocarbons and a faster energy transition.

Carbon traders are also paying attention to the elections. A Labour Party victory would potentially boost carbon prices, considering the party’s ambitious 2030 net-zero goal and the possibility of linking the UK’s and the EU’s carbon markets.

Additionally, misconduct allegations against C-Quest Capital and subsequent project suspension by voluntary carbon registry Verra could further undermine confidence in the Asian carbon market.

US natural gas market watchers expect the already-narrowing gas storage surplus to keep decreasing as the summer continues to heat up. NYMEX gas futures are rallying due to the hot weather, diminishing inventory, and strong power-burn demand.

In the US Midwest, recent heavy rains and flooding have significantly impacted the agriculture sector. Infrastructure and transportation challenges are driving up ethanol prices ahead of the Independence Day weekend, traditionally a peak driving period.

Finally, in Brazil, flat steel distributors are awaiting clarity on mills' pricing strategies as import tariff quotas near exhaustion. Major mills have already announced price hikes, with some increasing as much as 8%.

I’m Nikhil Gill, thank you for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.