Watch: Market Movers Global, June 3-7: OPEC+ to phase out production cuts; India’s 2024 general elections results in focus

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In oil, the market is taking stock of the weekend's decision by OPEC+ to extend production cuts.

Under the extended agreement, key OPEC+ members will gradually scale back their voluntary production cuts starting in October.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery is making waves with its first shipment of jet fuel to Europe, a milestone for the $19 billion project, which is also set to start supplying Europe with diesel in the coming weeks.

Energy markets will also be watching a string of US consumer data reports for demand signals this week. The US manufacturing and services PMIs will give pointers on inflationary pressures in the US ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on June 12.

Recent comments from the Fed suggest that a rate cut is unlikely, and indeed with inflation proving stickier than expected in the first half of this year, there is the possibility of a rate increase.

The Bonn Climate Change Conference, a major waypoint in the buildup to COP29, gets underway in Germany today with representatives from various countries discussing key issues related to climate change.

Negotiators will be particularly hoping to make some progress on Article 6.4, which provides a new structure for a global carbon market, after setbacks at COP28.

And finally, in the so-called Year of Elections, the results from India, the world’s biggest democracy, are due to be announced on Tuesday. They are expected to have a significant impact on commodity markets, as any policy changes are likely to shape the country's economic landscape.

With Prime Minister Modi expected to win a third term, continuity is broadly expected, although in the global rice market there is some optimism that India, the world's biggest rice exporter, may lift the 20% export duty on parboiled rice after the result.

The result will likely mean a continuation of India's ambitious plans in the energy transition. Currently, the nation is pursuing an all-fuels growth strategy to meet its growing energy demands and notably aims to achieve a 10% share of the global green hydrogen trade.

I’m Paulina Wiener, thank you for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.