Listen: Hotspot: The E&P race in the Atlantic Margin

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Sam Humphreys:

Hello, Sam Humphreys here. We just recorded an episode of EnergyCents, and I'm here with Hill Vaden. Hill, how are you doing?

Hill Vaden:

Hi, I am doing well. That was a fun podcast.

Sam Humphreys:

It was fun. Particularly, it's a shame people can't see the videos really, because we're talking about the Atlantic margin with Ford Tanner and Ida Hockerfelt, and we mentioned Uruguay quite a lot. And for those that may be not following soccer, I think that was a disappointing US result last night.

Hill Vaden:

Yes.

Sam Humphreys:

Yeah. Sorry. So, every time it got mentioned, for those listening, I was laughing, and so was Hill. So, the poor guys that we were talking to, it was just a little enjoying there.

Hill Vaden:

Yeah, it came up often. Uruguay came up often, and it was a little too soon after last night's loss that sent the US men's team home. Fortunately, they didn't have long to travel because they were hosting Copa América.

Sam Humphreys:

Oh, no. I didn't realize they were hosting.

Hill Vaden:

Yes.

Sam Humphreys:

Oh, no. Oh, what a shame. A bit raw, but nevermind. But that aside, it was a really good conversation. So, we've been chatting to quite a few people this year about Guyana, Suriname, and Namibia and exploration potentials there and why it's so interesting. So, we were talking to these guys about more of the above ground risks associated with the area, why it's attractive. So, Hill, what are some things people should be listening out for today?

Hill Vaden:

I think just the interest around the openness to entry, that there's so much enthusiasm around Guyana. There's so much enthusiasm around Suriname, and Namibia. And the Atlantic margin has, like we talked about in the podcast, they've got a lot of mirrored geologic opportunities, thanks to plate tectonics. So now, you're looking at openness to entry of the host governments, and so much of oil and gas is closed to foreign investors due to the presence of national oil companies. And a lot of these countries have immature petroleum sectors.

Hill Vaden:

So, there's opportunity for majors or NOCs to come in to develop these projects, and a lot of these countries are motivated to develop their resources. So, some of the pressures around, I suppose, ESG or environmental-directed activity that doesn't necessarily promote new fossil fuel development in other countries isn't... You're not seeing it at the same level throughout Latin America and Africa. So, there's a lot of things to pay attention to, a lot of things to keep people interested, and a lot of really organic activity happening. What do you think?

Sam Humphreys:

I mean, all of those things, and I think it's quite interesting, because as you said, some of this is a fairly new area for some of these countries, and the openness to certain governments to maybe review their fiscal regimes to make an investment more attractive to some of these IOCs. But it was really good, definitely something we should be watching out for. Probably have another conversation later on in the future as some of these results come in from these big wells that are going to be drilled. But I hope everyone enjoys it.

Sam Humphreys:

Hello, you're listening to EnergyCents, an S&P Global Commodity Insights podcast, where we talk about all things energy and finance. My name is Sam Humphreys, and I'm joined as ever by Hill Vaden. Hill, how are you doing?

Hill Vaden:

I'm doing all right, Sam. How are you doing?

Sam Humphreys:

All right. You guys are off on holiday in two days for July 4th, but I had a question. When you talk about the 4th of July, do you say the 4th of July or July 4th?

Hill Vaden:

Yes.

Sam Humphreys:

Because I am trying to get used to talking in US dates, and I've noticed that everyone says the 4th of July, which totally throws everything I've learned about US dates. Or have I just made that up?

Hill Vaden:

No, we say both, but if you wish someone a happy 4th, the greeting would be, "Happy 4th of July." But you might say, "Happy 4th of July. What are you doing on July 4th?" So there's-

Sam Humphreys:

Utterly ridiculous.

Hill Vaden:

If you're going to send someone a card, write, "Dear so-and-so, happy 4th of July," rather than happy July 4th.

Sam Humphreys:

Wait, do you send cards?

Hill Vaden:

No.

Sam Humphreys:

No. Okay. Okay. I suddenly thought I've missed out this whole thing.

Hill Vaden:

You could.

Sam Humphreys:

Anyway.

Hill Vaden:

You could. I've never sent one anybody a July 4th card, or a Happy 4th of July card.

Sam Humphreys:

Maybe it's a new niche we can get into. Anyway, we are joined this week by Ford Tanner, and Ida Hockerfelt, because we are going to be talking about the Atlantic margin. So, hello to you both. It's lovely to have you. For those that might not know, Atlantic margin is the area between west coast of Africa and the eastern coast of South America, and it is an area of high exploration and production activity. I think over half of the high impact wells for this year all within this area, so we've seen a lot of discussion and a lot of things happening in the area.

Sam Humphreys:

Ford, maybe you could kick off with just a little background as to what the area is and why we should be paying attention to it at the moment.

Ford Tanner:

Sure, Sam, Thank you. Well, I mean, I think a lot of the exploration activity that you're citing has to do with the geological analogs. So, we have conjugate base and pairs that run from both coasts of the continents you talked about. E&P investors have been looking at that for years, learning more and more. What we've really seen is now with the tons of exploration success that you've seen in Guyana, Suriname, you're starting to see activity on the West African conjugate sides of that. And conversely, with the success that you're seeing in Namibia, that's spurring investor interest on the South American side, in Argentina, and Uruguay, and then southern Brazil.

Ford Tanner:

Like you said, the exploration wells that are being drilled this year overwhelmingly globally are concentrated in this area, and we continue to see discoveries being made on both sides. And it's going to be a region that remains, I think, the leading E&P hotspot globally for the foreseeable future, in large part because it's IOC-dominated. So, we've seen lots of discoveries being made elsewhere in the world, but largely by NOCs. That's a big differentiator here.

Hill Vaden:

I'm going to define a couple things. First, IOC is international oil company or integrated oil company. NOC is national oil companies. So, a difference in publicly-traded investor-owned companies and companies owned by government, for those listeners out there. High impact well is a term that comes up often in our podcast, which is kind of internal, the discussion, and it's wells that we at Commodity Insights denote as having a high impact or being meaningful exploration wells. And a lot of them, as I mentioned, are targeting deposits in the Atlantic margin. And I think this is such a cool... Everybody learned about Pangaea growing up, and it's so cool to see that if you draw this kind of horseshoe shape up the coast of Latin America through I think even North America and then around down beside Western Europe and across Africa, you've got a mirror of geologic activity where what happens in Guyana, that there's a chance that that's going to happen on the other side of the Atlantic.

Hill Vaden:

So, we've got two experts here, one, Ford, focus on Latin America, Ida on Africa. Ida, a lot of Sam and I have talked a lot this year about Guyana. We've talked a lot about Suriname. We're talking more about Namibia. Can you talk a little bit on the Africa side? And I guess the other thing is we're going to take this conversation really from an above ground perspective. So, yes, there's the geologic piece, which is interesting and rocky, but if we're thinking about it from above ground perspective, can you talk a little bit about Africa, maybe outside of Namibia, and why there's some attraction to both NOCs and IOCs for this area?

Ida Hockerfelt:

Yeah, sure. And I think that starts almost where Ford left off, where we talked about Guyana, Suriname, and then, as you talked about conjugates today and analog basin. So, I'd like to talk a little bit about Liberia, which is part of the conjugate basin to Guyana and Suriname, and I think this is a really interesting country to keep an eye on. It's a frontier without commercial discoveries, but that is now receiving interest from investors as a result of success across the Atlantic margin and Guyana, Suriname. And I say investors, but the only really confirmed interest that we have is ExxonMobil, who's now in negotiations for four offshore blocks. And Exxon exited the country in 2017, so this will be quite an interesting sort of reentry just a few years after that.

Ida Hockerfelt:

For Liberia, there's no other licensed acreage in the country, so this would really be a boost to them as a host country for oil and gas investment. So, that's the only confirmed interest. But the NOC, NOCAL, has mentioned interest from other majors as well. Not confirmed, more along the lines of meetings, but there might be a wait and see for what happens with Exxon's negotiations. But as you mentioned, to talk a little bit about the above ground context for Liberia, so we have this interesting but unproven below ground context. It's also interesting, but it's definitely not for the risk averse company. Maybe to start with a positive, in contrast to many of its West African neighbors, the country just had a peaceful transfer of power after democratic elections. Not a given in this part of the world. And this is an important step towards greater political stability, a sign of public trust in the democratic system, all of those things.

Ida Hockerfelt:

But there's also another side to the coin here, and that's that state structures and institutions are weak and corruption is widespread across all levels of government and institutions. With that, there's significant question marks around the country's capacity to manage potential discoveries, responsibly manage revenues for the benefit of its population, but also in relation to investors in terms of maintaining sanctity of contract, stability of regulations, not seeing creeping tax changes or abrupt overhauls of regulations, et cetera. Because one aspect of Liberia is also interestingly that its fiscal terms are actually not very attractive, even in relation to its African frontier peers. Liberia increases tax rates in a bid round just a few years ago, which also likely contributed to the fact that there were no license awards after that bid round.

Ida Hockerfelt:

But Exxon is obviously still interested and their potential contracts could be a test case for the country, both in terms of exploration, will they be able to prove the commerciality of the basin, but also what kind of host country will Liberia be.

Sam Humphreys:

I'm going to just pretend Hill didn't diss the rocks earlier because I am a geologist and I like the rocks, but we're not talking about that. Ford, I'm going to just go to you. If we're just going to flip-flop to the other side of the margin, this notion that Exxon may reenter an area. So, are we seeing similar players reenter places that they may have exited in Latin America?

Ford Tanner:

Yes.

Sam Humphreys:

Yes. Okay. Good. That's it.

Ford Tanner:

Yes. Excellent question. Yes. Chevron comes to mind as having explored in Uruguay in the 1970s. Didn't have success there, pulled out, and now, 50 years later almost, it has reentered the upstream there through a farm-in agreement. So yeah, I think we're seeing some of that on both sides of the margin. And to your point about the rocks and everything Ida said, I mean, that just goes to show you despite all of the issues that she listed, Exxon is looking at the subsurface potential and that's driving its decision because of this overwhelming success that it's had in the geological analog of Guyana.

Hill Vaden:

There was a cliché or story years ago, I think it was maybe Billy the Kid or something, why do you rob banks? Because that's where the money is. So, if you're going to drill for oil where the oil is, but the other thing I'd add that when we look at, and you guys did a fantastic report several weeks or maybe a month or so ago, looking at the entry possibilities for these countries. So, Guyana is the poster child for a country that has opened itself up to Exxon.

Hill Vaden:

Exxon has discovered a huge play. It's potentially extending into Suriname. But all of these countries, maybe not all of them, the majority of the countries that you guys ranked on both the African side and the Latin American side were disproportionately green on the openness to entry. Can you talk a little bit about that? And you mentioned Liberia, some of the concerns on the bid rounds, but what is it that allows... Or I guess, how important is that the openness to entry for an upstream explorer these days?

Ida Hockerfelt:

Well, you see, if you look at the African countries, most of them are fully open to investors, as in their acreage is open for negotiation alongside bid rounds in some cases as with Liberia. But currently, you have Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, they're all running open negotiations and promoting blocks in some instances, but allowing investors to pick which blocks they are most interested in, in terms of then obviously geology, but also looking at what else is going on in that basin or in that country.

Sam Humphreys:

Is that the same in Latin America? Are we seeing bid rounds, or is it more of this open door policy for companies to have more of a negotiation to enter the region?

Ford Tanner:

Really all of the above. Even the countries that do have open acreage systems, I mean, the biggest one that comes to mind is Brazil. There's a bid round component to it, so they put blocks on offer that investors can express interest in. And then based on that level of interest, they'll basically conduct a bidding process.

Ford Tanner:

In Uruguay, it's a little bit different. I think the process is slightly more opaque there and it's more of a direct negotiation with the government, although Uruguay has licensed all of its acreage, so there's nothing else to be licensed there. It's small country geographically, and it's corresponding offshore areas is pretty small, but the future in that country is really going to be through farm-ins for the foreseeable future. But Brazil, gigantic country geographically and offshore, we anticipate that this open door system will remain the mechanism to getting investment in for the foreseeable future in these exploration areas.

Hill Vaden:

Brazil also has a very large and capable national oil company in Petrobras that is quite active in the offshore. Ida, you mentioned an NOC within Liberia. Can you talk about some of these is less experienced or less capable NOCs, or how should we think about that NOC? If there is openness to entry from non-NOC participants, what is the NOC within these host governments looking for in that relationship?

Ida Hockerfelt:

I think for many of these frontier countries, the NOC is sort of more of a paper organization. So, they will want to gain experience, they'll want to gain capacity. There will likely be some kind of required share as investors enter perhaps 10% for the NOC or similar. For example, for Namibia, that's not a required share, but it's sort of heavily encouraged in negotiations. So, I think that countries may be more or less forward-leaning on this.

Ida Hockerfelt:

Ghana, for example, has been very forward-leaning, whereas Côte d'Ivoire has taken a more flexible approach to the role of its NOC, Petroci. But I think we can probably expect to see them also want their NOC to gain experience as projects ramp up as, for example, ENI's Baleine project ramp up. They might want to see the NOC also gaining experience to gain capacity to perhaps overtake up not that project, but also run projects as an operator down the line.

Sam Humphreys:

We've talked about this idea of above ground risk and attractiveness for this region. And one thing I was interested in... Now, I'm going to get this wrong because I always get it the wrong way round, so Ida, you'll probably have to correct me. I believe it was Angola that altered its fiscal terms to increase its attractiveness to investors. Is that right? Is that wrong? It was?

Ida Hockerfelt:

Yes.

Sam Humphreys:

I'm sure I've had many conversations on this. Obviously, that was a play to try and get investment into the country. Now, has that been seen elsewhere? So, I'm going to swing over to you, Ford. Is this something that people are considering if we're just going to ignore Guyana and Suriname for a minute and look at the rest of LATAM. Is that something that people are considering, or are the fiscal terms already quite favorable for investment compared to some other regions on the margin?

Ford Tanner:

Yeah. In Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, fiscal terms, we don't really see major movements on that. Argentinians are very, very competitive. Uruguay is less so, but they're in kind of a different phase of the investment process. Very early days there. They're doing preliminary steps for seismic. You said not to mention Suriname but I have to, because that's really one example where we are seeing major changes. It's Total and APA Corporation that are the partners for Block 58 there, where Hill mentioned the fairway from Guyana's extending into. That's kind of the bridge, as we call it, linking those two countries in that basin. And that final investment decision for that block has been delayed successively, actually for a couple of years.

Ford Tanner:

Total has said that they want to take FID before the end of the year, but the fiscal part of the story there has been a big impediment. They have a 36% corporate income tax rate in Suriname. It's one of the highest in the world, very uncompetitive. And we're starting to see the government make moves to make fiscal terms more competitive for offshore gas for Block 52, where Exxon and Petronas are partners. They recently did a 10-year tax exemption as part of a renegotiation for that gas field there. So, our view is that Total frankly has some leverage with the government of Suriname, and with Total's discoveries in Namibia, and allocation of capital kind of has its limitations. Capital is finite. Are they going to prioritize investing in Suriname when they have a much bigger asset base in Namibia? Which is under more competitive fiscal terms. Much more competitive.

Hill Vaden:

I'm going to go back to Ida here. If we're thinking about the openness to investors as being a gold star in a lot of these countries for oil exploration, can you walk that forward a little bit? Let's say I get into one of these countries and I have a fantastic discovery, then all of a sudden, the operations become important and the risk of nationalization is, in many ways, hanging out in emerging countries where the rules can change. How should I think about that? And are there certain countries where one can perhaps have more influence, be more confident about... If the entry's fine, how about the go forward operations?

Ida Hockerfelt:

I mean, I know we're not talking about Namibia either.

Hill Vaden:

We're always talking about Namibia.

Ida Hockerfelt:

But, I mean, if we look along the margin and we look at the coastal countries, I think from north to south, it's almost a little bit in terms, with some exceptions, you have increasing stability and reduced risk of that kind of thing happening, sort of nationalizing resources on a significant scale. So, you have in the south of the margin on the African side, South Africa, Namibia, both fairly well-developed countries with strong-ish institutions, developed structures, capable institutions outside of just political leaders. Whereas you go to then more fragile countries like Guinea, currently under military leadership, Sierra Leone, Liberia to some extent with its history, you have a greater risk of more uncertainty. I wouldn't necessarily say that it will go straight to nationalizing resources once there have been discoveries, they have a greater risk of that kind of thing in more fragile countries.

Sam Humphreys:

So, if we're looking at Latin America, my knowledge of the region as far as how advanced the area is for oil and gas production, how quick it is to monetize is a little rusty. So, there's a lot of exploration going on at the moment with companies investing in exploration. How quickly are they able to monetize that? Because you've talked about the issues that are going on in Guyana and Suriname with being able to take FID due to a certain fiscal or government impact. Is that similar across the whole of that western margin, or there are area that's quicker and is more available to get those assets turned around?

Ford Tanner:

I mean, overall, our risk methodology and our rankings very clearly showed in our report that Latin America is favorable to West Africa, generally speaking, in terms of the issues you're talking about. Speed of monetization, lack of regulatory impediments, that sort of thing. In Suriname, real quick, I mean, it's a fiscal issue, but the government has been very helpful in facilitating regulatory approvals and that sort of thing. So, they're very eager to have that happen. They're looking at Guyana and want to do the same thing.

Ford Tanner:

And in Brazil, it depends on what part of the country you're in. Kind of in the more ecologically sensitive areas, we would say, like the foz do Amazonas basin and the equatorial margin, which is the northern shoulder of Brazil, there's been tons of issues around environmental permitting, lots of delays there. You move further south in basins that are deemed less ecologically sensitive, even within the equatorial margin, Petrobras is getting regulatory environmental permits, et cetera, and they're making discoveries there.

Ford Tanner:

Further south down close to Argentina and Uruguay, in the Pelotas space, and regulatory approvals, environmental permits, not necessarily fast but in reasonable timeframes. So, it does vary. Argentina, I think what we're seeing is things moving ahead pretty quickly. We've got a government there under Javier Milei who's very supportive obviously of the E&P industry, offshore in particular, even under the previous government, which was a leftist government, but they were very aggressively supporting offshore exploration there. So, that's one thing I would say is a theme that we're really seeing in Latin America is this cross-party support for E&P.

Ford Tanner:

You see that in Guyana, you see that in Suriname, you see that in Uruguay. They have a presidential election coming up in October. On the right, you have basically a candidate who would be business as usual. On the left, you have a vice presidential candidate who was actually energy minister under a previous leftist government. She was the one who pushed for the open door policy after unsuccessful bid round results and has been a very forceful advocate for exploration in that country. So, that's really important for long-term stability for investors.

Ford Tanner:

And you see that a little bit in Brazil. For the most part, the Lula government is very aggressively supporting and pushing for exploration in the equatorial margin for Petrobras. There's a faction within the governing coalition that's more environmentally aligned, and they're the ones who are putting the brakes on that. But at the end of the day, we think that the political force will be behind the developmentalist pro-oil and gas, pro-business faction within that government.

Hill Vaden:

I'm going to assume, Ida, that the same, with the differences in countries of course, but the same general warmness to E&P is there on Africa's Atlantic margin as well. Can you correct me if I'm wrong? If I'm not wrong, can you talk about some of the enablers of this exploration? Is the kit there? Is oil is easier to monetize than gas? Are people, I presume, hoping for oil, throughout all of this exploration, success? Are the countries indifferent to oil versus gas? Can you talk a little bit about it from the African side?

Ida Hockerfelt:

I think there might be maybe a slightly bigger range in how countries approach it, but one really good example of fast track development is Côte d'Ivoire, where ENI brought the Baleine discovery to production in less than two years after discovery. That was very much the explicit results of a hands-off approach from the government where they facilitated permits. They really tried to ease the way forward just to bring this project to development. So, I think that same approach we're also seeing in Namibia. But for example, we're seeing a very different context in South Africa where we have heavy permitting processes, slow moving bureaucracy, repeated legal challenges and civil society activism against essentially all aspects of E&P. So, there's really a wide range in how countries approach the ease of doing business or facilitating for investors to move then from discovery to production.

Ida Hockerfelt:

And in terms of oil and gas, I mean, it's a bit of both, because African countries have, in general, stressed the importance of allowing Africa to develop its natural resources for its own good in this whole global energy transition. And part of that is also using natural gas as a transitional fuel. So, countries do want to... If there's gas in the ground, they want to be able to use it often domestically. We see that in Côte d'Ivoire, for example, the associated gas in the Baleine is designated primarily for domestic use and regional use for spare capacity. So, there's a bit of both. Obviously, they do want to bring a product to development and the easiest might be for oil, but gas is also not sort of an unnecessary byproduct of any discovery.

Sam Humphreys:

Well, just in the interest of time, Ford, I'll start with you, what are some key things that we should be looking at in Latin America over the next few months that we should be watching?

Ford Tanner:

If we work down from north to south on the continent, I would say really for Suriname, the FID being taken by Total. If it's delayed further, that's going to be a big setback for that country. However, I think it would put pressure on them to make even more investor-friendly changes to the fiscals there. In Brazil, the big deal is going to be the environmental permitting. If Lula can't get that done, because he's a unique political figure, kind of bridging the environmental and the business factions, if he can't get that done for Petrobras, I don't see other companies really getting those permits in that particular part of the region.

Ford Tanner:

Down in Argentina, or I guess Uruguay first, the presidential election. There's not a big change there. I think, like I've said, politically, it's going to be business as usual regardless of who wins. In Argentina, it's going to be interesting to see the extent to which Milei really does get his agenda implemented. We're seeing a lot of progress on that. He's getting more and more traction politically to approve a lot of the reforms that he's pushing through in terms of investment incentives, reducing the size of state bureaucracy, reigning and spending, all with very good results.

Ford Tanner:

And our view in Argentina is at the end of the year, you're going to start to probably see a loosening of capital controls, unwinding of those export restrictions that have been major constraints on the extent of the growth of the upstream sector there. But it has grown in spite of all of that, so it's really, in our view, going to unleash even more investment into the upstream in Argentina.

Sam Humphreys:

Awesome. Ida, same question to you.

Ida Hockerfelt:

I'll do a bit more of a skip and hop along the coast, because there are quite a few countries on the African side. But if I just then cross over straight from Argentina, I mentioned South Africa earlier. They had an election in May, so just over a month ago, where they, for the first time now, have a coalition government with ANC in the lead. And it will be very interesting to see what that will mean for upstream policy and how they will be able to wrangle policy questions through this coalition. They have a long awaited upstream regulatory overhaul that's still not enacted. It's been in the works for 10 years. Only the presidential signature is now... That's the last piece before it's enacted. So, that's a big step if they managed to get it through now in the next year.

Ida Hockerfelt:

Jumping up quite a bit then to Côte d'Ivoire, but I also just mentioned that they have elections coming up instead in the next year. Unlikely to see significant change in upstream policy given their very successful approach so far, I'd say, but there are likely to be campaign promises or some policy tweaks ahead of the election, potentially related to, as I also mentioned before, maybe increasing the state's role or share in projects, something like that. And then also very curious to see what will happen with any large discovery that they announced just a few months ago, what they will do with their farmdown, et cetera, and how the development of that will look.

Ida Hockerfelt:

And then perhaps, also finally then Liberia, Exxon's potential entry. What will happen with that? What will be the effects? Also curious as to a contract terms if they do release those, to what extent the government has potentially been flexible on fiscal terms because that might really be a boost for other interests in the country.

Sam Humphreys:

All right. Sounds good. Hill, anything else you want to add before we wrap up?

Hill Vaden:

Yeah, just one quick question for each of them with one word answers only. If you could drill anywhere on the Atlantic margin that is not maybe Suriname or Guyana, where are you going to go? You can go all the way up to Portugal if you want, or Canada, so anywhere. We don't even have to limit it to Latin America or Africa. Ford, we'll start with you, because-

Ford Tanner:

Offshore Venezuela.

Hill Vaden:

... Ida's pointing at you.

Ford Tanner:

Offshore Venezuela.

Hill Vaden:

Offshore Venezuela.

Ford Tanner:

Yeah, contrarian approach. No, I'm just kidding.

Hill Vaden:

Wow.

Ford Tanner:

I would say Brazil. Brazil, because of the wealth of opportunities there. Lots of different, very promising basins. Brazil's got it going.

Hill Vaden:

All right. Four [inaudible 00:33:22] coastline. That's kind of a cheater response, but fine. It's a safe answer. Ida, you don't have any coastlines that big anymore?

Ida Hockerfelt:

Well, it's probably not going to be a very exciting answer, but I think Côte d'Ivoire actually, both because of the below ground potential and prospectivity, but also the very flexible approach by the government in a further region stable country with relatively strong institutions.

Hill Vaden:

All right.

Ford Tanner:

Her answer was better than mine.

Hill Vaden:

It's kind of the same answer, right? They fit together like a puzzle piece, so it's uh-

Ford Tanner:

That's true. That's true.

Sam Humphreys:

Awesome. Well, thank you very much, guys. And just a reminder to people listening, do like and follow the podcast. And if you want any more information, you can reach us at S&P Global slash Commodity Insights. But thank you everyone and have a lovely day.