Shipping set to lead transport decarbonization by 2050 amid regulatory push: DNV

The maritime sector is expected to become the most decarbonized transport segment globally by 2050, driven by increased use of low-carbon fuels, carbon capture and energy-saving measures amid international regulatory drive, DNV said Oct. 8.

While global electric car sales have hit new records and airlines signed long-term deals for sustainable aviation fuels in recent years, shipping companies' uptake of green marine fuels is hampered by high prices and limited availability.

However, DNV said in its latest annual Energy Transition Outlook that the shipping sector will cut its CO2 emissions by 77% by 2050, more than aviation and road transportation, due to rapid decarbonization in the coming years.

"This impressive abatement arises from a levelling off in demand for maritime transportation from the 2030s, more efficient shipping, and a transition to [low-carbon] fuels and onboard carbon capture and storage driven by the International Maritime Organization's Net-Zero Framework," the classification society said in the report.

Later this month, the UN agency's member states are scheduled to discuss the adoption of the regulation that will place a cost on maritime greenhouse gas emissions from 2028.

DNV officials have warned that the new rules could double bunker costs by 2036 while discouraging the use of LNG, and that IMO member states should refine them before their implementation.

August's average delivered bunker price for very low sulfur fuel oil was $12.16/Gigajoule in Singapore, compared with $14.69/Gj for LNG and $46.15/Gj for 100% sustainable methanol, according to the Platts global bunker cost calculator.

Based on DNV's forecast, biofuels will be the first low-carbon fuel in extended use with a 4% share in global bunker mix by 2030, before the emergence of eMethanol in 2027 and ammonia in 2039. Meanwhile, 4% of emissions from ships running on fossil fuels will be captured by CCS in 2042, according to DNV.

Biomass will account for 25% of the world's marine energy use in 2050, followed by natural gas at 24%, oil at 18%, ammonia at 17%, and e-fuels at 12%, DNV said.

Other sectors

Across the broader transport sector, DNV said electrification continues to accelerate rapidly, with global EV adoption passing the 50 million unit milestone during 2025.

Despite growing transport demand, the road transport sector's final energy demand will peak at 140 exajoule/year in the early 2030s owing to efficiency gains, according to DNV.

Meanwhile, high costs will prevent rapid uptake of SAF, and fossil jet fuel will still account for 70% of global aviation energy mid-century, the organization said.

"Policy will drive decarbonization, since all alternatives to fossil jet fuel are much more expensive," DNV said. "Currently, SAF deployment targets are predominantly non-binding and only adopted in isolated countries or regions."

Overall, DNV now forecasts a 51%-49% split between fossil and non-fossil fuels in all energy consumption by 2050, slightly more fossil-dependent than previous projections.

Global CO2 emissions are now expected to be 4% higher in 2050 compared to last year's outlook, although still declining 43% from current levels.

Policy reversals in the US are expected to delay emission reductions by approximately five years, with annual CO2 emissions projected to be 500-1,000 million metric tons higher than previously forecast, according DNV.

"The global energy transition is not stalling -- it is evolving, with momentum shifting to regions that are doubling down on clean technologies," said DNV Group President Remi Eriksen.

China is setting new records for renewable energy expansion, accounting for 56% of the world's solar photovoltaic installations and 60% of new wind power additions this year alone, according to DNV.