Russian gasoline expected to arrive in Brazil in next two weeks: CAS

Gasoline coming from Russia totaling 141,100 barrels are expected to arrive in the Brazilian port of Santos over the next two weeks, according to data retrieved Nov. 11 from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

The Southeastern Brazilian port is scheduled to receive a Russian cargo of 112,000 barrels (17,806 cu m) Nov. 19, followed by another Russian cargo of 29,000 barrels (4,610 cu m) Nov. 25, according to CAS data.

CAS data retrieved Nov. 8 showed an Argentinian cargo of 246,575 barrels (39,202 cu m) scheduled to arrive at the southern São Francisco do Sul port Nov. 10. Such cargo no longer appears in the system and was likely an Argentina-Brazil coload of diesel/gasoil cargo headed to India, according to a CAS specialist.

Gasoline cargoes from Argentina to Brazil are unusual, market participants said Nov. 8. Argentina has not exported gasoline to Brazil since November 2023, when 230,900 barrels (36,710 cu m) arrived in Brazilian ports, according to CAS data.

A total 30,000 Russian barrels (4,769 cu m) are scheduled to arrive in Itacoatiara, in the northern Amazonas state, by Nov. 11, Nov. 1 CAS data also showed. That ship has already departed, according to a CAS specialist.

The Brazilian gasoline import window has been closed since Oct. 3, when domestic prices were on average Real 0.01/liter higher than the import parity level, according to data from the Association of Brazilian Fuel Importers.

Among Brazil's main importing regions, the spread between imports and domestic prices on Nov. 11 was minus Real 0.0909/liter in Itaqui (Northeast Brazil), minus Real 0.0736/liter in Suape (Northeast) and minus Real 0.1735/liter in Paulínia (Southeast). In Aratu (Northeast), the spread was minus Real 0.0674/liter, according to Abicom data.

Platts assessed Nov. 8 DAP gasoline prices at $80.29/b in Itaqui, at $80.96/b in Suape, at $82.02/b in Santos, and at $82.24/b in Paranaguá, in southern Brazil, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

Brazil has imported more than 2.04 million cu m of gasoline so far in 2024, with Suape and São Luís (Itaqui) as the main ports, respectively, according to data from Brazil's National Oil, Gas and Biofuels agency. In the same period of 2023, the country imported 3.3 million cu m of gasoline, with São Luís and Suape as the leading ports, respectively.

Although total fuel sales up to September have risen by 4.79% compared to the same period last year, hitting 48.68 million cu m, gasoline sales at the pump dropped 5.44% to 32.64 million cu m, according to ANP data. Third-quarter and September data showed volumes had a slight drop between 2023 and 2024, around 1.3%.

At the same time, hydrous ethanol sales rose by 44.5% to 16.04 million cu m, following Commodity Insights analysts' expectations.

On domestic shipping, or cabotage, 287,167 barrels (45,656 cu m) that left the port of São Sebastião on Oct. 30 were expected to arrive in Suape Nov. 21, according to Nov. 11 CAS data.