Russia, India to top diesel and gasoil suppliers into West Africa in August: CAS

Russia and India are slated to be the largest suppliers of diesel and gasoil shipments into West Africa in August, with the rest coming from the Middle East, Nigeria's Dangote refinery and Europe, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

West Africa is expected to import 1.1 million mt of diesel and gasoil in August, according to CAS data. Comparatively, diesel and gasoil imports into West Africa totaled 1.21 million mt in July, up 8% from June but down 16% on the year, CAS data shows.

Russia has become the largest exporter of diesel and gasoil into WAF, expected to send 306,000 mt in August, up 40.37% from July. This volume is driven primarily by exports from Novorossiisk, which has seen its load volumes in August rise 18% from July so far.

However, the projected volume of Russian exports of diesel and gasoil to West Africa are 21.74% lower than in August 2024, the data shows.

Meanwhile, Indian diesel and gasoil exports to WAF are projected at 240,000 mt in August, 31.23% lower than July, with all cargoes loading in Sikka. The volume shipped from India to WAF in July had more than doubled on the month, CAS data shows.

Market participants remain unsure as to the exact impact of the upcoming EU ban on imports of oil products coming from refineries processing Russian crude and to be applied from Jan. 21, 2026. Such sanctions affect not only imports into the EU but also the ability of EU citizens and EU-based traders to trade sanctioned products, as well as the willingness of banks to finance the purchases of such products.

If Indian refiners continue to use Urals crude, Europe-based traders may thus be unable to place refined products into West African countries anymore.

"If mass-balancing is authorized, it should be fine," a Europe-based trader said. "When the market is weak, it's fine, but if the market is tight, it could be more difficult."

Some Indian refineries have already started to replace Russian crude with alternative sources. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. bought 950,000 barrels of both Nigerian Escravos crude and Ghanaian Jubilee crude, while IOC bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from the Gulf of Mexico, according to market sources.