Uncertain plastics treaty negotiations could have significant impact on future oil demand

Entrenched positions make a clear conclusion from the ongoing plastics treaty negotiations in Geneva hard to predict but, whatever the outcome, it could have significant ramifications for oil demand, of which petrochemicals will account for a significant share in the years to come.

The second part of the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution (INC-5.2) -- tasked with developing an international legally binding treaty to end plastic pollution, including in the marine environment -- opened Aug. 5 at the UN in Geneva.

The session aims to finalize and approve the text of an agreement. If successful, it would achieve what the four previous sessions, dating back to 2022, failed to do.

According to current forecasts, the outcome could affect a sizeable chunk of oil demand. Global production of petrochemicals will require more than one in every six barrels of crude oil produced by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency's latest medium-term oil outlook.

However, the outcome of the talks is far from certain. A group of about 100 countries -- including the EU, UK and a number of African and South American nations -- supported a cap, and other countries, mainly oil producers with large petrochemical industries -- such as Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia -- argued that a treaty should focus on eliminating plastic waste.

The petrochemicals and plastics industry, not surprisingly, opposes a production cap and is calling instead for a focus on circularity, not least because plastics recycling rates, still only about 10%, remain alarmingly low.

The industry wants negotiators in Geneva to focus not on producing less, but on recycling more.

"At the heart of an effective agreement is circularity -- where plastics are designed to be reused or recycled, collected at end-of-life and remade into new products, so they stay in the economy and out of the environment," said Global Partners for Plastics Circularity (GPPC) in a statement July 29.

INC-5.2 is intended to be the final round of UN plastics treaty negotiations. The organizers insist that a deal must be reached in Geneva. Talks are officially due to end on Aug. 14 but seem likely to drag on.

A limit on plastics production remains a distinct possibility, but this could be phased gradually over the next 15 years. The treaty's target would be to end plastics pollution by 2040.

Petrochemicals a key growth spot for oil

As the transport and power generation sectors continue to diversify toward other fuels, the petrochemicals industry is set to become the dominant source of global oil demand growth from 2026, the IEA said.

Petrochemicals accounted for about 75% of net crude oil demand growth in 2024, primarily for the production of plastics and synthetic fibers, it said.

The forecast total draw on oil demand for petrochemicals feedstock of 18.4 million b/d by 2030 will see naphtha consume 10.2 million b/d and LPG/ethane 8.2 million b/d, the IEA said.

Naphtha and LPG are the key oil-derived feedstocks for petrochemicals production. Plastics made from petrochemicals go into many uses including packaging, bags, films, and containers.

Looking further ahead, the existing forecast is that naphtha remains the strongest growing product, with 3 million b/d of growth to 2050, peaking in 2050, the only product, bar jet fuel, that will stay the distance, according to analysts at S&P Global Energy.

Driven by strong petrochemicals demand, refinery-produced naphtha prices will switch to a premium to crude by the early 2030s, with refiners switching hydrocracker operations to maximize production. Direct Oil to Chemicals (DOTC) plants with a minimum 75% conversion will be built in high-demand regions, requiring an additional 3.5 million b/d of crude by 2050, the Energy analysts said.

This is a base-case scenario, and in the event of a plastic cap, these units may prove unnecessary.

The base-case continued demand scenario lends itself to price growth. According to forecasts from Energy, naphtha prices at Singapore will rise from a $5.68/b discount to Dated Brent in 2025 to a 35 cent/b premium in 2030, rising to a $2.21/b premium in 2040 and a $2.60/b premium in 2050.