Ryanair sees capacity growth stunted by late plane deliveries, in potential jet fuel demand hit

The growth of short-haul air traffic in Europe, a key demand outlet for jet fuel, is likely to be constrained for the rest of the decade as the world's two major aircraft manufacturers struggle with deliveries, low-cost carrier Ryanair said July 21.

In its latest quarterly report, Ryanair, which is Europe's largest carrier by seats, reported a 4% year-on-year uptick in passenger volume in its first 2026 financial quarter ended June 30.

Its load factor was largely unchanged year over year at 94%.

However, the carrier indicated that its traffic growth could be capped by delays in aircraft deliveries.

"FY26 traffic remains on track to grow just 3% to 206 million passengers, due to heavily delayed Boeing deliveries," the company said.

While long-haul international flights contribute to a large segment of jet fuel consumption, the resilience of short-haul and low-cost travel has been a significant driver of the industry's recovery from the pandemic.

"We believe European short-haul capacity will remain constrained for the next five years to 2030 as the big two OEMs remain well behind on aircraft deliveries," said Ryanair.

In the first half of 2025, Airbus has made 306 deliveries of its targeted 820. Boeing, which has not released a specified target for 2025, made 280 deliveries over the same period.

"We remain confident that the 29 remaining [Boeing 737-8200] 'Gamechangers' in our 210 orderbook will deliver well ahead of [summer] 2026, when we hope to recover this year's delayed traffic growth into FY27," the carrier said.

Reflecting the broader outlook in the European jet fuel market, Ryanair said travel demand through the 2025 summer has been strong.

The carrier noted that the outcome for the first half of its financial year 2025 will hinge on the strength of close-in August and September bookings.

This was similar to the trend of late bookings highlighted by peer easyJet, which released its quarterly trading update in the week ended July 19.

Bullish summer

The optimistic outlook for summer demand has been reflected in a strengthening European jet fuel market that has seen spot premiums rise through mid-July.

As a premium to its underlying swap strip, the Jet CIF Northwest Europe Cargo assessment by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, rose $8.42/mt over the week to July 18 to a differential of plus $13.05/mt over the Jet CIF NWE Cargo swap strip.

Market participants have cited struggles in securing jet fuel through the month despite forthcoming arrivals of arbitrage cargoes.

The start of school holidays in the UK, Europe's largest jet fuel importer, is also expected to bolster jet fuel demand through August, sources said.