Norwegian offshore oil, gas investment set to increase in 2025: industry

Investment in oil and gas activity on the Norwegian Continental Shelf is set to increase in 2025, with industry group Offshore Norge forecasting a 4% year-on-year rise in total NCS spending next year.

In its latest investment analysis published Dec. 16, Offshore Norge said total spend in 2025 was estimated at NKr275 billion ($24.6 billion).

In its previous investment report published in December 2023, Offshore Norge said it expected a fall in investment in 2025, but higher prices for various goods and services pushed up the investment estimates, with a weakened krone also amplifying the effect.

"Increased activity also contributes to the upward adjustment," it said, pointing to ongoing development projects in combination with increased infill activity and production drilling on fields in operation.

After 2025, investments are then projected to fall gradually toward 2029, with spending seen at around NKr250 billion in 2026 and a little over NKr200 billion in 2029.

"This is mainly happening because projects initiated before 2025 are completed. However, new projects may raise the projections towards the end of the period," it said.

Exploration activity is also expected to increase next year, with Offshore Norge estimating that around 45 exploration wells would be spudded on the NCS in 2025.

"A high level of activity is expected on the Norwegian shelf next year," Offshore Norge chief economist Marius Menth Andersen said.

"Further exploration and development is crucial to slow down the natural decline in production as fields are depleted," Andersen said.

"In this way, we secure important energy supplies to our European neighbors, who also want to link up more closely with allies in the energy field, where stability and reliability weigh heavily," he said.

Continued investment in new projects will enable Norway to maintain its export levels in the longer term.

Norway is now the biggest single supplier of gas to Europe after Russian flows were sharply curtailed through 2022. Norwegian deliveries meet around a quarter of European demand.

High European gas prices have also driven producers to maximize exports. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the Dutch TTF month-ahead price on Dec. 13 at Eur41.10/MWh.