US Northeast gas production rebounds following third-quarter shut-ins

Appalachian natural gas production is on the rebound entering November as producers react to rising in-basin pricing and regional fundamentals that are tightening on higher seasonal demand.

Northeast production averaged 35.5 Bcf/d over the last two weeks, up by about 700 MMcf/d from the first half of October alongside a nearly three-fold increase in regional gas-fired heating demand between the first and last weeks of the month, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

The pickup in output implies operators have somewhat moderated production shut-ins that were carried out during the third quarter as loose supply-demand fundamentals pushed storage balances higher and prices lower through the end of summer.

Appalachian regional average cash prices ranged $1.40-$2.97/MMBtu during the third quarter, with next-day average assessed below $2/MMBtu on more than a third of days during the July-September period, data from Platts, part of Commodity Insights, showed.

Gas sold at regional hub Eastern Gas, South averaged $2.15/MMBtu during the quarter. At Texas Eastern, M-2 receipts, the index to which leading Appalachian producer EQT pegs its curtailment decisions, Platts assessed gas for next-day flows at $2.20 on average in Q3.

In recent days, prices have been substantially higher, with the regional average climbing to $3.07/MMBtu on Oct. 30, Platts data showed.

Curtailment strategies

EQT reported production shut-ins during the third quarter and said it would carry out 15-20 Bcfe of curtailments in October in response to price volatility in basin.

"We went into the [fourth] quarter assuming we baseload a Bcf a day of curtailments," CFO Jeremy Knop told analysts during EQT's Oct. 22 quarterly earnings call. "When you look at where pricing was a week ago, sub-$1.50[/MMBtu], we were effectively fully curtailed. Where we sit today with pricing in basin at, call it, $2.50 we're fully online, so we have been very tactical about shifting production on and off in response to this."

Expand Energy produced about 4.13 Bcfe/d in Appalachia during Q3, down roughly 100 MMcfe/d versus the second quarter, according to the company's Oct. 29 earnings report. Management confirmed the lower volumes were a function of curtailments in the Northeast.

Production curtailments were carried over into Q4, Chief Operating Officer Josh Viets told analysts Oct. 29, without defining their breadth or duration. Production will be responsive to market conditions during Q4 "with volume expected to increase through quarter," the company said in investor materials.

Outlook

Commodity Insights' North American gas analysts estimate Northeast gas production will rise to 36.2 Bcf/d in December.

"We expect Northeast production growth to resume in November, which is typical of the seasonal transition to winter, as local demand begins to rise," the analysts said in their latest short-term published Oct. 24.

Going into next year, EQT expects 2026 production to be roughly flat to where it exits 2025. Other regional producers including Antero Resources and CNX Resources have communicated their intent to operate in maintenance mode in 2026.

"[Northeast] production is expected to remain steady for 2025–27, before higher prices, stronger gas demand from the power sector and elevated outflows, enabled by pipeline takeaway capacity additions, drive significant growth later in the outlook," Commodity Insights analysts said in the Oct. 24 report. "Anemic drilling activity in 2025 drives a flat production outlook in the near term."