EU in 'strong position' to keep gas supply, prices stable this winter: Simson

The EU is in a "strong position" to keep gas supplies and prices stable this winter, with gas storage sites more than 95% full, EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson said Oct. 31.

In a statement, Simson said the EU had surpassed its target of 90% storage fullness by Nov. 1, reaching in excess of 95%.

"When Russia invaded Ukraine and tried to blackmail Europe with its energy supplies, we took rapid action to protect ourselves against future supply shocks," Simson said.

"This work is paying off, and we enter this winter with a healthy level of gas in storage across Europe, diversified energy supplies, a higher share of renewable energies, and a renewed commitment to energy efficiency and energy savings," she said.

"This puts us in a strong position to keep supplies and prices stable this winter, and to continue our transition away from Russian fossil fuel imports."

Despite her optimism, European gas prices have risen to 2024 highs in recent days on winter supply concerns.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead price at Eur43.47/MWh on Oct. 25 -- the highest assessment since December 2023.

It has since fallen back slightly, with Platts assessing the contract at Eur41.03/MWh on Oct. 30.

90% target

The EU hit its target of 90% fullness on Aug. 19, some 11 weeks ahead of the Nov. 1 deadline, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

But injections slowed through September, mainly on the back of a heavy Norwegian maintenance schedule that saw gas deliveries to Europe drop sharply.

The EU first exceeded 95% fullness on Oct. 13, with storage levels having remained mostly flat since. Stocks stood at 95.2% of capacity as of Oct. 29, the latest GIE data showed.

The European Commission said Oct. 31 there was currently around 100 Bcm of gas in storage in the EU, which represents around one third of the EU's annual gas consumption.

EU countries agreed in 2022 to a legally binding target to fill their gas storages to 90% of capacity by Nov. 1 each year to ensure sufficient security of supply and market stability for the winter months.

Danish miss

Almost all EU member states hit the 90% target, though Denmark conceded this month it was no longer technically possible for it to meet the EU-mandated gas storage filling target by Nov. 1.

Latvia will also miss the target, but under the gas storage regulation, certain filling obligations are limited to avoid a disproportionate impact on member states with significant storage capacity, including Latvia.

The delayed restart of production at the Tyra gas field and planned maintenance work on the Baltic Pipe delayed storage injections in Denmark.

"The EC has been informed that Denmark will not reach the target by Nov. 1. It is still technically possible to reach the target by Dec. 1, which also has been communicated to the Commission," the Danish Energy Agency said Oct. 23.

Danish gas storage sites were filled to just 74.5% of capacity as of Oct. 29, the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.

Denmark mostly net withdrew from its gas storage sites through September due to planned maintenance work at Nybro, the entry point for Norwegian gas into Denmark via the Baltic Pipe.

Danish gas storage capacity is relatively small at around 10.4 TWh (1 Bcm).