Metals & Mining Theme, Non-Ferrous

December 11, 2024

China’s EV output, sales hit another all-time high in Nov

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HIGHLIGHTS

EV sales account for 45.6% of total vehicle sales

China’s lithium carbonate market to remain weak in short term

China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.51 million units in November, up 5.7% on the month and 47.4% from a year earlier, further improving the all-time high record made last month, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' report released Dec. 11.

CAAM considers pure and hybrid electric vehicles as new energy vehicles.

According to CAAM data, China's EV production reached a record high of 1.57 million units in November, up 7% month over month and 45.8% year over year.

S&P Global Commodity Insights calculations showed that China's EV penetration rate reached 45.6% of the country's total vehicle sales.

EV sales surpassed sales of fuel cars for the fourth straight month, reaching 50.6% in the Chinese domestic market in November, CAAM data showed.

The explosive growth in EV sales continued to reflect the impact of China's stimulus blitz, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said.

Industry sources said China's vehicle sales are expected to remain on an uptrend in December as the validity of trade-in measures remains through the end of December. Automakers and distributors also rush to reach the full-year target, helping sales.

CAAM called for the central government to extend stimulus measures next year and introduce them as early as possible.

China's total EV output and sales reached 11.35 million and 11.26 million units in the first 11 months of 2024, up 34.6% and 35.6%, respectively, compared to the same period last year, CAAM data showed.

Meanwhile, China's EV exports slowed in November.

Exports reached 83,000 units, down 35.2% from a month ago and 14.1% lower from a year earlier, CAAM data showed.

China's EV exports to developing countries may remain strong despite policy disruptions, CPCA said.

Power battery output

China's output of power batteries and other batteries, a key indicator of battery metals consumption, reached 117.8 GWh in November, up 4.2% month over month and 33.3% year over year, driven by the strong growth in NEV sales, according to data from the China Automobile Battery Innovation Alliance or CABIA.

Meanwhile, CABIA data showed that sales of power batteries and other batteries reached 118.3 GWh, up 7.2% from a month earlier and 40.1% from a year ago.

Nickel-cobalt-manganese used by power batteries and other batteries totaled 43,000 mt in November, up 4.9% from a month ago, but lithium iron phosphate material consumption remained higher at 221,000 mt, up 4.2% month over month.

Lithium chemicals prices

Despite strong EV sales, Chinese lithium salt prices weakened as domestic supply remained elevated and downstream consumers bought only on a need basis as year-end approached, sources said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 75,500 ($10,383)/mt on a DDP China basis on Dec. 10, down Yuan 2,500/mt from a month earlier.

Market participants expect the spot market in China to remain quiet in the next two weeks and for buying activity, if any, to pick up in late December or early January as buyers return to restock before the Lunar New Year holidays.