Refined copper deficit shrinks to 107,000 mt in August: ICSG

The world refined copper deficit through August shrank to an estimated 107,000 mt from the 138,000 mt deficit calculated through July, the International Copper Study Group said Nov. 22.

Refined copper production in August reached 2.09 million mt, outpacing 2.04 million mt of estimated usage, according to data provided in the ICSG monthly copper market report.

"Although global demand started to recover in the second half of 2020, refined usage still remains below pre-pandemic levels in most countries," ICSG said.

The industry group said ex-China refined copper usage over the first eight months of 2021 is estimated to have increased by about 8.5% compared to the same period of 2020, but usage is still 4% below levels in the same period of 2019.

Conversely, year-to-date Chinese apparent usage through August declined by 2.8% year over year with net refined copper imports sliding 27%, ICSG analysts said. This drop partially offset usage growth in other regions of the world, they added.

The world refined copper balance adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded stocks indicated a market deficit of about 120,000 mt.

Refined copper production rises 2.1%

ICSG analysts said global refined copper production in the first eight months of the year rose 2.1% year over year to 16.45 million mt, with primary production and secondary production up 1.2% and 6.5%, respectively.

Copper refinery capacity utilization worldwide stood at 81.4% over the eight-month period.

In the period, refined output grew 5.8% in China, 11% in the Democratic Republic of Congo and 11.5% in the US.

Chilean refined copper output fell 5% in the January-August period, compared with last year, due to an 8% reduction in electrowinning refined production caused by outages, ICSG said.

The ICSG estimated smaller copper output declines in Brazil, Germany, Japan, Myanmar, Spain, Sweden and Russia due to various maintenance, operational issues and shutdowns.

Secondary refined copper production from scrap increased by 6.5% year over year.

Copper mining output grows 3.3%

Preliminary estimates indicate that world copper mine production climbed 3.3% during the January-August period to 13.89 million mt, ICSG said.

ICSG reported a 5% lift in concentrate production and 4% drop in solvent extraction-electrowinning output.

Many major copper mining countries, including Peru, posted gains in production over the eight-month period, compared with the same period last year.

"Output in Peru, the world's second biggest copper mine producing country, increased by 10% due to the fact that March-May 2021 production was up by 35% from a constrained March-May 2020 during which time the industry was severely impacted by a COVID-19 related country lockdown," ICSG said. "Despite the recovery this year, production over the first eight months of 2021 was still 8% below that of the same period in 2019."

Mined copper production rose 57% in Indonesia on the continued ramp-up of underground production at the Grasberg mine.

Miners in the DRC and Panama increased copper output by 11% and 85%, respectively, due to additional output from new or expanded operations.

However, Chilean output slightly declined through August.

"Production in Chile, the world's biggest copper mine producing country, was down by 1.5% over the first eight months of this year with a 1% growth in concentrate production being more than offset by an 8% decline in SX-EW output mainly at the Escondida mine," ICSG said.