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Research & Insights
26 Jul 2024 | 14:05 UTC
By Semra Ugur
Highlights
Near-term rebar contracts remain in a slight contango
Scrap weekly trading volumes almost quadruple on week
Rebar futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange jumped almost tenfold in terms of trading volumes over the week, with physical exports of rebar increasing to Southern Europe, despite weak global finished-steel sentiment and demand.
Contract month | Platts assessed LME rebar forward curve July 18 ($/mt) | Platts assessed LME scrap forward curve July 25 ($/mt) | Week on week change ($/mt) |
July | 573.5 | 576.5 | 3.00 |
August | 578 | 574.75 | -3.25 |
September | 583 | 579 | -4.00 |
October | 588.5 | 582.5 | -6.00 |
The August-October portion of the forward curve for Turkey rebar futures on the LME remained in a contango, indicating the anticipation of a potential upward trend in Turkish rebar prices in the near term.
Turkish rebar export prices rose July 25, as market participants reported multiple deals suggesting a strong demand for rebar products from the Balkans.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Turkish exported rebar at $580/mt FOB on July 25, up $4/mt on the day.
Platts assessed the daily outright spread between Turkish export rebar and import scrap prices at $191.50/mt July 25, widening by $5.50/mt on the week.
Weekly LME rebar futures trading volumes in the week to July 25 increased to 30,610 mt, up by 27,550 mt from 3,060 mt recorded July 18.
Volumes traded for the LME scrap futures contract, which settle basis Platts assessments, also jumped on the week, despite Turkish mills switching to imports of billets at more attractive prices in the week to July 26.
Spot prices for physical imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) inched down and were assessed at $388.50/mt CFR July 25, down by $1.50/mt on the week, as Turkish mills expressed a clear preference for billet imports from the Far East.
The near-term structure over the July-October portion of the forward curve sharpened its backwardation July 25, indicating that futures traders expected Turkish scrap prices in the physical market to correct slightly in the near term.
Contract month | Platts assessed LME scrap forward curve July 18 ($/mt) | Platts assessed LME scrap forward curve July 25 ($/mt) | Week on week change ($/mt) |
July | 388.5 | 388.5 | 0.00 |
August | 388 | 381.25 | -6.75 |
September | 387.5 | 378.25 | -9.25 |
October | 387.75 | 379.75 | -8.00 |
Weekly LME scrap futures trading volumes reached 352,220 mt July 25, up from 90,630 mt recorded on July 18.