Indian rebar prices hit record low amid prolonged demand slump

Indian rebar prices hit a record low on July 22 since Platts launched the assessment in February 2022, due to sustained weakness in demand and a seasonal slowdown, market participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Platts assessed the IS1786 Fe500D/Fe550D 12-25 mm diameter rebar price at Rupees 42,200/mt ex-works Raipur on July 22, Rupees 7,450/mt lower from this year's peak of Rupees 49,650/mt on April 4. This also represents a fall of almost 15% in only four months.

A Raipur-based market participant said the intensity of the decline surprised several trade participants. "We have not seen these low levels since COVID. The seasonal slowdown because of the monsoon is there, but even the pre-monsoon period did not go as per expectations."

Demand usually increases before the monsoon as activities pick up pace ahead of seasonal disruptions, but the market did not see any significant uptick this year.

While demand usually decreases during the monsoon season due to a pause in construction activity across large parts of the country, industry sources pointed to a larger, more persistent demand vacuum that began early in the year.

"We are seeing rebar at their lowest because prices had gone up sharply without support from actual demand. The Rupees 6,000-7,000/mt hike earlier this year was not needed - they just anticipated demand and took the opportunity. Now it's correcting. The market has been like this since January," a Mumbai-based source said.

At JSW Steel's Q1 FY26 earnings call on July 18, CEO Jayant Acharya acknowledged the seasonal trend but maintained that the drop was in line with historical patterns.

"There are no safeguards on rebars or long products. What you see now is the seasonal impact - construction activity goes down during this period, which affects the markets. It's a cyclical monsoon-quarter trend and prices usually recover as construction picks up post-monsoon," Acharya said.

Some market participants, however, warned that the correction is likely to persist unless demand revives significantly post-monsoon. The market outlook for now remains muted amid slow real estate activity and constrained liquidity across the downstream value chain.