Trump tariffs may hit exports to US as countries retaliate, warns US recycling body chief

Retaliation from other countries in response to US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs may impact exports to the US, Robin Wiener, president of the Recycled Materials Association said at the Bureau of International Recycling convention in Valencia May 26.

"The concern with the imports is not just on that $7 billion [worth of imports in 2024], but it's on the retaliation that occurs from other governments that benefact our exports," she said.

According to Wiener, the US exported $27 billion worth of recycled materials, while imports were worth $7 billion.

She said she had found that "generally manufacturing is not supportive of the tariffs, it wants a strong basis in the US but also wants market access."

Wiener mentioned that the core belief of the Trump administration was that the trade system was "broken and in order to fix it, you have to break it first."

She also addressed factors about the tariff proposal that had resulted in concerns within the market, such as Trump being the sole arbitrator of these measures.

"To understand the rationales, there isn't just one set of tariffs being proposed. There is concern over China.... There is the reshoring of jobs in the US and how we would do that. So, there are a lot of rationales being put forward," Wiener said.

Another factor that was likely to impact long-term investment was the uncertainty about the effectiveness of the tariffs under the next administration that would follow Trump.

EU retaliation

The European Commission launched a public consultation May 8 to draw up a final list of commodities that would be subject to EU tariffs if negotiations fail to remove US duties on EU products.

The list so far includes US industrial and agricultural products worth up to Eur95 billion ($ billion), including wine, beer, bourbon, and other spirits, as well as fish, live animals, oil seeds, and agricultural machinery.

The 218-page list also covers cars and car parts, chemicals, and electrical equipment.

The new EU measures will come in response to the US tariffs announced by Trump in April, which would amount to 10% for all EU goods – and could potentially rise to 20% after a 90-day pause expires on July 8.

The EU is also subject to the 25% import tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which were not part of the 90-day pause, although Trump did issue an executive order April 29 ensuring automakers, steel and aluminum producers could avoid paying multiple tariffs, by preventing tariffs from being "stacked" on top of others.

Trump also recommended raising tariffs on all goods from the EU to 50% on May 23, although this had not been formalized, with discussions ongoing.

Wiener said there were predictions that tariffs would be at 10%, but that there was a lot of uncertainty about all parts of the economy.

Chinese tariffs

Other than Europe, the US is also involved in negotiations with China as both nations have agreed to implement a 90-day reduction in tariff rates, with US imports of Chinese goods subject to 30% duties, a significant drop from the previously proposed 145%.

China has also decreased its tariffs on US goods to 10%, a decrease from the previous 125%.

Cyclope consultancy Professor Philippe Chalmin told the International Trade Council meeting at the convention May 26 that he predicted that the situation would more or less stabilize.

"Next year tariffs will be between 10%-15%, which is huge by the way, and depends on the sector in which you are working."