OECD European gas demand forecast to fall up to 10% from 2024-2030: IEA

OECD European natural gas demand is expected to contract by 8%--10% from 2024 to 2030, the International Energy Agency said Oct. 27.

The reduction is projected to result from lower prices and an expected wave of new LNG capacity in the years ahead, which could moderate the demand slide.

"The decline in European gas demand is forecast to be primarily driven by Northwest European markets," the IEA said in its Gas 2025 report. "In contrast, gas use in Eastern European markets is expected to marginally increase amid the phaseout of coal- and lignite-fired power plants."

The vast majority of the expected demand drop is forecast to come from the power sector. Regardless of lower LNG prices, OECD Europe is expected to see a 25% dive in gas-to-power demand by 2030 compared to 2024, removing some 30 Bcm of need, the IEA said.

"This is largely driven by the rapid expansion of renewable power output, which is forecast to increase by more than 40% by 2030."

Industry and energy sector demand in OECD Europe could actually see a slight bump in gas demand from 2024-2030 amid lower LNG prices. Without accounting for such prices, however, the IEA projected gas use in these areas would fall by 3% from 2024-2030.

Even with these less severe shifts than in the power sector, OECD Europe is still forecast to have 10% less gas demand for industry and energy sector use in 2030 than in 2021, the IEA said.

"This means that around half of the industrial gas demand lost during 2022-2023 is not expected to recover due [to] a combination of permanent plant closures and energy efficiency gains," it said. "The relocation of European industries to other regions – with a structurally lower cost of gas supply – remains a major downside risk to industrial gas demand in Europe."

The final areas of need, residential and commercial sectors, are projected to see annual declines of 1% per year in gas demand from 2024 to 2030, the IEA said.

"In the European Union, the Renovation Wave is set to improve the energy efficiency standards of the building stock, while the electrification of heat through the deployment of heat pumps is expected to further moderate natural gas use in the residential and commercial sectors," it said. However, the IEA also cautioned that weather variability means these forecasts could alter in the years ahead.

Recent trade trends

Turning to recent trends, Europe saw declines in piped gas from both of its major suppliers in the first nine months of 2025, the IEA said.

Russian piped gas to the EU fell by 45% (10 Bcm) year on year between the first and third quarters following the end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine at the start of the year. Over the first nine months of 2025, the IEA estimated Russian piped gas met less than 10% of European demand.

Norwegian piped gas into other European countries saw a smaller decline of 2.8% (nearly 2.5 Bcm) compared to 2024 between the first and third quarters of this year, driven by unplanned outages and elevated maintenance.

The lower pipeline flows as well as higher consumption and higher storage needs are projected to result in record LNG imports into Europe this year--some 20% higher than 2024.

That trend, however, is not set to continue.

"We expect Europe's LNG imports to decline by almost 5% in 2026 amid lower demand and higher piped gas deliveries from Norway," the IEA said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the DES Northwest Europe LNG marker at $10.235/MMBtu Oct. 27, down 1.69% day on day.