Energy Transition, LNG, Natural Gas, Emissions
September 05, 2025
INFOGRAPHIC: LNG and gas markets navigate a world in transition
By Matt Hoisch
LNG and natural gas are increasingly central to the global energy system, appealing to both consumers seeking to bolster energy security and those striving to lower carbon emissions. Amid this growth, markets for the two interlinked commodities are navigating a flurry of short and longer-term transitions.
LNG trade flows illustrate the network of regional linkages defining the international space. A handful of influential buyers and sellers significantly shape the market. Over the coming years, a wave of new LNG capacity is expected to alleviate supply constraints.
Before much of these added volumes hit the water, however, Europe will have to weather the winter. The EU is by far the largest regional buyer of LNG from the world's top exporter: the US. Gas storage in the EU is expected to meet new, loosened targets passed earlier in the summer that allow member states to fill to just 80% in the event of "difficult" market conditions, rather than the firm 90% previously mandated.
As of late August, EU gas storage sat around 78%, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. At the same time last year, it was just over 92%.
S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts forecast EU storage levels will fill to 85% by Nov. 1. The year-on-year lag in storage is adding uncertainty as to how prices will react should market shocks materialize over the coming months.
Such shocks could come from weather -- for example, a particularly cold snap that spikes demand or a hurricane that hampers US exports. They could also arise from the geopolitical sphere, which has continued to spur gas and LNG price volatility throughout 2025.
Both black swan events -- such as the Israel-Iran conflict in June -- and anticipated-yet-impactful shifts -- such as the end of Russian gas pipeline flows via Ukraine at the start of the year -- have primed markets for dramatic jerks as buyers and sellers navigate an increasingly uncertain terrain of global alliances, animosities, and pressures.
