Ammonia purchasing stalls as market awaits Ukraine impact: traders

Ammonia traders weighed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis amid already illiquid markets, sources said Feb. 22.

Global ammonia traders said the crisis' effect on the markets had been minimal in practical terms, although market activity remained weak due to already high prices.

"Everybody is a bit anxious and stalling any new purchase from Russia," a European trader said. Market participants were unclear whether the pipelines carrying ammonia from Russia would keep flowing as the situation unfolds.

Moroccan and Turkish buyers, who rely on Russian ammonia, could look to Iranian supplies as an alternative, the trader said. "Quite ironic, isn't it?" he said.

Russia exported $2.14 billion in ammonia and fertilizers to Europe in 2020, according to UN Comtrade data. The country shipped $250 million worth of ammonia and fertilizers to Turkey and $240 million to Morocco.

A second European trader said they were seeing "business as usual", with the Yuzhny pumping rate not affected. But questions around potential sanctions cast a cloud of uncertainty over the market.

A US-based trader said their company had been monitoring the situation for the last two-four weeks. Whatever happens, it would have an impact given the global nature of the ammonia market, the trader said. "It's all speculation at this point," he said.

S&P Global Platts assessed the CFR Northwest Europe ammonia price at $1,000/mt Feb. 22, up $40 day on day based on higher input natural gas prices. US Gulf Coast prices were assessed at $1,030/mt, up $15 day on day.