29 Dec 2021 | 11:21 UTC

European wind power set for record Q4 as stormy year-end offsets pre-Christmas lull

Highlights

December on course for 62 GW average, vs 58 GW in 2020

Spot deflates on demand drop, wind gains, lower gas prices

Capture prices, gas generation cost hit record-highs

Wind power generation across Europe was set for a record fourth quarter with a stormy end to 2021 helping to offset a lull before Christmas, with Week 51 wind output at a six-week low, TSO data analyzed by S&P Global Platts showed Dec. 29.

EU wind power generation fell 17% week on week to 6.9 TWh in the seven days to Dec. 26, averaging 41 GW, TSO data aggregated by WindEurope showed.

The lull in wind helped to push spot power prices to record highs.

Daily wind generation for Dec. 28 jumped to a 76 GW average, up fourfold week on week and weighing on spot prices.

Including Britain, which is not included in the WindEurope data, European wind averaged around 62 GW over Dec. 1-28, meaning Q4 wind was on course to average around 60 GW, up 10% year on year after monthly records were set in October and November.

Gains this quarter were set to reduce the 2021 shortfall by around 11 TWh after below average wind speeds earlier this year.

EUROPEAN WINTER WIND GENERATION (AVERAGE GW)

2021/22
2020/21
2019/20
2018/19
October
60.8
55
44.6
46
November
56.5
51
52.5
47
December
61.8*
57.8
63.4
50.6
January
55.3
63.3
56.9
February
62
78
51
March
55.5
56.3
60.6

*=Dec. 1-28 average

Source: WindEurope (Entso-e data),National Grid (GB data)

The lull in wind before Christmas combined with record-high gas prices and pushed day-ahead power above Eur400/MWh for two consecutive days -- Dec. 21 and 22, a record for most European power markets, exchange data showed.

Spot prices have fallen since amid reduced demand over Christmas holidays and a swing to milder and windier weather across Northwestern Europe, with gas prices also sharply lower.

Wind was forecast to rise above average across Northwest Europe for the final days of 2021. Germany's daily average was forecast to almost triple from 13 GW on Dec. 29 to around 35 GW on Dec. 31, according to spotrenewables.

Capture prices for wind and generation costs for gas-fired power plants hit record highs in Week 51, but have fallen since, S&P Global Platts data show. UK onshore wind hit GBP416.87/MWh ($555/MWh) just below an all-time high set during a spike in Sept. 2021, while German onshore wind hit Eur415.27/MWh ($469/MWh) on Dec. 22, according to data from the new Platts Renewable Capture Price index.

Generation costs for a price-setting gas-fired power plant (50% efficiency NW Europe) for the month-ahead were pegged at Eur390.22/MWh on Dec. 21, Platts data showed.