ERCOT issues advisory for extreme cold weather event; power prices climb

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas has issued an advisory for extreme cold weather that is forecast to sweep the region over the Christmas weekend.

The advisory is in effect from the morning of Dec. 22 through Dec. 26. Temperatures are forecast to plunge to as low as 16 degrees Fahrenheit in Austin and 13 F in Dallas, with lower temperatures expected outside city centers, according to the US National Weather Service.

"We will likely need Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings and a Wind Advisory for Thursday night into Friday morning," according to the weather service.

The front will also bring strong northerly winds with gusts as up to 35 mph, with wind chills as low as minus 8 F, according to the weather service. ERCOT forecast wind power production to climb above 20 GW by the end of Dec. 21, a roughly 47% jump day on day.

System conditions

Power prices spiked in response to the upcoming freezing weather.

The ERCOT North Hub on-peak real-time custom package for Dec. 23 traded around $477/MWh on the Intercontinental Exchange, as off-peak traded around $300/MWh. For comparison, North Hub on-peak day-ahead locational marginal prices have averaged roughly $52.25/MWh so far this month, according to ERCOT data.

ERCOT forecast peakload to range from 50.2 GW to 68.286 GW during the weather event, peaking Dec. 23. ERCOT's winter peakload record is 69.150 GW reached during the February 2021 winter storm.

Closely monitoring weather

ERCOT issued a statement Dec. 16 that it was closely monitoring the changing weather conditions.

"As a series of cold fronts approach Texas, ERCOT continues to closely monitor weather forecasts and models," according to the statement. "ERCOT expects sufficient generation to meet forecasted demand."

ERCOT issued Dec. 16 an Operating Condition Notice, a procedural notification to transmission and distribution owners and generation resources that temperatures will meet ERCOT's criteria of 25 degrees or lower in the Austin/San Antonio and the Dallas-Fort Worth areas between Dec. 22 and Dec. 26.

"Over the past 18 months, ERCOT has worked closely with the Public Utility Commission and elected officials to implement reforms and increase grid reliability, including weatherization, bringing more generation online sooner if needed, and purchasing more reserve power," according to the statement. "As a result, the reliability and resiliency of the grid have been strengthened significantly."