Solar capacity surging in 2021 in Southeast US: S&P Market Intelligence data

States in the Southeastern US have added 2.5 GW of solar generation so far in 2021, bringing the total to 16.7 GW, and another 2.7 GW is under construction with a 2021 planned online date, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

If these additions occur as planned, they would represent an increase of 1.3 GW from what was considered in November as likely to be online at the end of 2021, and would add to the total amount of power supply with near-zero marginal cost, therefore tending to weaken the region's wholesale power prices.

Movement in the region's on-peak bilateral forward curves reflect these expectations. Since Oct. 1, into Southern July-August 2022 on-peak forwards have fallen 2.9% to about $43.90/MWh as of Dec. 8, according to the S&P Global Platts M2MS forward curve. Florida Power July-August on-peak forwards have fallen 2.8% to about $44.75/MWh.

In July and August 2021, into Southern day-ahead on-peak bilateral indexes averaged $48.45/MWh, and Florida power day-ahead on-peak bilateral indexes averaged $48.80/MWh, according to Platts price data.

The Southeast states counted in this analysis are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

A big one-year gain

The addition of 5.2 GW in 2021 compares with the following solar additions over the past five years in the region:

• 2020: 3,947 MW
• 2019: 2,232 MW
• 2018: 1,851 MW
• 2017: 1,927 MW
• 2016: 2,044 MW

In two states, the in-service dates for solar projects were postponed since the November analysis, with 70 MW in Louisiana to come online now in 2022 and with 28 MW in South Carolina under construction but now with an unknown completion date.

In contrast, four states had substantial increases in how much solar was expected to be online in 2021, with Virginia at about 622 MW, Georgia about 485 MW, North Carolina about 94 MW and Florida about 74 MW.

So far, the Market Intelligence power plant data base of projects under construction shows just 514 MW of solar expected to come online in 2022, with Florida leading the charge with about 150 MW, then Virginia with 120 MW, Mississippi with 100 MW, Louisiana with 70 MW, North Carolina with 55 MW and South Carolina with 20 MW.