20 Aug 2021 | 21:51 UTC

Henri to become hurricane, strike Long Island, New England: National Hurricane Center

Highlights

Power may be off seven-10 days in some areas

Power prices down for Aug. 23 delivery

Tropical Storm Henri, which is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall along New York's Long Island the afternoon of Aug. 22, may wreak havoc on power systems in the region, cutting power demand that might well have been stronger with the forecast hot temperatures at midweek.

"Henri appears to be slowly gaining strength," the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 pm ET advisory on Aug. 20. "A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to accelerate to the north on Saturday."

The National Hurricane Center expects hurricane conditions to hit parts of Long Island and Connecticut on Aug. 22, possibly into parts of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Wind speeds are forecast to hit 85 mph before weakening to 75 mph as it makes landfall.

Extended outages likely

"Given the potential intensity of the storm, some outages may last up to seven to 10 days," PSEG Long Island said Aug. 20. "The eastern end of Long Island is expected to experience the most severe weather impact."

Day-ahead on-peak power prices at the New York Independent System Operator's Hudson Valley Zone G fell about $5 to about $55/MWh for delivery Aug. 23 on the Intercontinental Exchange, while ISO New England Mass Hub on-peak power was down about $8 to about $58/MWh.

The weather forecast for the midweek on Long Island is about 90 degrees, said Kieran Kemmerer, a power market analyst at S&P Global Platts Analytics, which suggests, he said, "the magnitude of demand destruction could be larger if load is not restored early in the week."

"At a minimum it is likely we will see an increase in congestion on Long Island resulting from transmission and load restoration efforts; however, generators in low-lying coastal regions may also be at risk of prolonged outage depending upon the severity of storm surge," Kemmerer said.