Prolonged heat, drought in California could mean 5.2 GW needed for summer 2022

California may need up to 5.2 GW of additional resources to ensure energy reliability next summer with the drought and extreme heat expected to persist into 2022, according to an analysis presented on Aug. 11 to the California Energy Commission.

The preliminary Summer 2022 Stack Analysis showed a potential energy shortfall for July 2022 through September 2022, looking at both average and extreme weather demand curves.

"There's a lot of work that needs to be done to bring projects online that will meet our demand," Commissioner Karen Douglas said during the Aug. 11 meeting, adding that state regulators were dealing with reliability during heatwave and drought conditions, while also trying to build "the grid of the future."

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Current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration models predict the 2021 California drought and western extreme heat events to persist into summer 2022, according to the analysis.

"There is a need for significant contingency resources in summer 2022 or additional procurements by summer 2022 under the 22.5% [planning reserve margin] demand curve," according to the analysis. "Additional resources are needed to provide electric system resilience against climate-induced drought and extreme heat events in California, as well as wildfire-related outages or west-wide heat events compromising interstate energy transfers."

The analysis considers the California drought's impact to hydro capacity with a derate of 1.5 GW "due to projected lower reservoir levels and projected availability," said Angela Tanghetti, with the commission's energy assessment division. It also incorporated the California Public Utilities Commission order for 840 MW procurement by August 2022, CPUC emergency procurement of 556 MW by July 2022 and the 834-MW Redondo Beach retirement.

Summer 2021 impacts

Heat events in June and July have already taxed resources. There have been six flex alerts issued this season, compared with the 10-year annual average of two, Commission chairman David Hochschild said.

"I think of this summer like a football season where we have to go all season undefeated," Hochschild said about maintaining reliability in a heat dome on top of a drought that is impacting hydro capacity.

The annual reliability outlook conducted in early 2021 for August and September showed the potential need to call on up to 2.3 GW during the 6-8 PM PT period under extreme weather, according to the analysis. By May, it became apparent the analysis needed updates after significant impacts to hydro supply and demand were identified due to the 2021 drought and the 600-MW gas-fired Russell City Energy Center went offline May 27 due to a steam turbine generator explosion and fire.

The 2021 analysis was updated to show a potential to call on contingency resources of up to 3.8 GW under an extreme weather scenario.

"With climate change, extreme weather events that were previously considered low probability events must be accounted for in electric sector planning," according to the analysis. "Planning reserve margins around 15%, historically considered robust in California, are now likely low given the risk to supply and demand under extreme heat, drought, wildfire threat and a changing resource portfolio."

2020 outages

Extreme heat waves in 2020 strained electric operations in California and led to the first rotating outages since 2001.

A final root cause analysis of the 2020 outages was released in January 2021.

The commission, along with the California Independent System Operator and the California Public Utilities Commission, took actions to provide greater grid reliability for summer 2021, including emergency procurements and increased coordination among balancing authorities in the state.

Energy code

In other business, the commission approved the 2022 California Energy Code for newly-constructed and renovated buildings, which now goes to the California Building Standards Commission for a vote in December. If approved, it would come into effect on Jan. 1, 2023.

Homes and businesses use nearly 70% of California's electricity and are responsible for a quarter of the state's greenhouse gas emissions. The 2020 Energy Code is estimated to reduce 10 million metric tons of GHGs, equivalent to taking nearly 2.2 million cars off the road for a year.