MISO issues hot weather alert on rising temperatures, tight supply conditions

Houston — The Midcontinent Independent System Operator has issued a hot weather alert for its Central and North regions through July 3, with average temperatures expected to reach into the low 90s and peakload forecast near 115 GW, 10% above normal and the highest level in nearly a year.

The alert is in effect from 8am CT July 1 through 10 pm July 3 due to rising temperatures mixed with high humidity, according to the alert.

"The hot weather alert is for situational awareness as we could approach tight supply conditions," MISO Spokeswoman Allison Bermudez said June 30. "During this time, we ask our members to review their outage plans for deferral or cancellation."

MISO members are to review outage plans to determine if maintenance or testing, scheduled or being performed on monitoring, control, generation or transmission equipment, can be deferred, revoked or canceled.

Near-term outlook

MISO peakload is forecast at around 111.06 GW July 1, 114.94 GW July 2 and 111.74 GW July 3, nearly 10% above the five-year July peakload average of 104.891 GW, according to MISO data.

Indiana Hub on-peak day-ahead was valued in the low $30s/MWh for July 1 delivery, while on-peak balance-of-the-week was bid at $30/MWh and offered at $33/MWh on the Intercontinental Exchange in Tuesday trading.

In comparison, the Indiana Hub on-peak day-ahead locational marginal price has averaged in the mid-$20s/MWh in June, while on-peak real-time has averaged in the mid-$20s/MWh in June, down 10% year on year, according to ISO data.

Indianapolis high temperatures are forecast in the low 90s degrees Fahrenheit for July 2 and 3, compared to the five-year average in the mid-80s, according to US National Weather Service data. Minneapolis high temperatures are forecast in the low to mid-90s July 2 and 3, compared to the five-year average in the upper 70s.

Generation history

Coal-fired power is typical the lead fuel source in MISO, averaging about 45% of total market share for January-June for the last three years, according to ISO data. That value has dropped almost 16 percentage points to nearly 29% year to date.

Meanwhile, gas-fired power has jumped almost 10 percentage points to average 36% of market share so far this year, and wind has increased nearly 4 percentage points to more than 13% of the generation mix.

Texas Eastern M-3 spot gas has averaged about $1.427/MMBtu in June, down 31% from a year ago, leading to more gas usage due to lower prices.

The ISO expects to have less wind generation available, with wind forecast to peak at 8.569 GW July 1, down 30% from the June 30 wind peak forecast of 12.186 GW.

MISO is also importing more power.

The PJM Interconnection has been exporting an average of 5.1 GW into MISO so far in June, that is an increase of 9.4% from May and a jump of 24.3% from a year ago, according to PJM data

MISO's south region was under a severe weather alert June 29 due to tornado warnings and severe storms across central Arkansas moving northeast.

MISO delivers electric power across 15 US states and the Canadian province of Manitoba, stretching from the US Gulf Cost to Canada.