EU to lift 2030 renewable energy share target to 38-40% from 32%: leaked document

The EU is set to lift its 2030 target for the share of renewables in primary energy to 38%-40% from 32%, according to a leaked draft document published by Euractiv.

The higher target would be in line with the European Commission's impact assessment of the new 55% target in reducing CO2 emissions, and would require renewable energy's share to roughly double from current levels.

"The most ambitious renewable energy targets remain academic if we don't solve permitting," WindEurope's communications officer Christoph Zipf said.

EU wind energy capacity would need to be 433-452 GW by 2030 to meet a 38%-40% renewable energy target, WindEurope said in a position paper submitted to the EC's consultation process.

Of that, some 361-374 GW would be onshore and 73-79 GW offshore, the wind energy industry association said.

That is almost a threefold increase on the 179 GW currently installed, and 90 GW more than pledged in EU27 National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) submitted last year, it said.

The EU added 10.5 GW of wind capacity in 2020, with growth forecast to average 15 GW/year over the next five years.

The existing 32% target would require annual additions of 18 GW, while the higher 2030 target would require annual wind additions to average 27 GW for 2021 to 2030, it said.

Revisions to the EU's renewable energy and energy efficiency directives (RED, EED) are part of a raft of legislative proposals called 'Fit for 55' to be published by the EC before the summer break, a spokesperson said May 5, adding that the EC does not comment on any leaks.

Leaker

According to Euractiv, the draft was leaked by industry group Renewable Heating and Cooling Alliance, with renewable energy set to play a key role in the buildings sector.

For renewable energy in heating/cooling, the leaked draft set a growth target of 1.1 percentage points per year.

For transport, the 2030 target was to be lifted to a 26% share of renewable energy from 14%, as well streamlining the way the share of renewables in transport is determined, the draft indicated.

According to WindEurope's Zipf, details on permitting, guarantees of origin (GOs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs) were not yet part of the draft.

Current legislation allows member states to retain GOs from projects benefiting from state aid, preventing PPAs from getting signed, WindEurope said.

It has called for an harmonized approach on the issuance, use and cancellation of GOs for all renewable electricity producers in the updated RED II.

S&P Global Platts has been assessing a number of GOs, with EU wind 2022 last assessed at Eur0.425/MWh (51 cents/MWh), rising to Eur0.52/MWh for 2025.

SolarPowerEurope in February called for an even higher target of a 45% share.

That would require 870 GW of installed solar capacity by 2030, almost triple the 335 GW currently foreseen in NECPs, according to SPE's policy officer Miguel Herrera.

EU member states have 137 GW of solar PV installed, of which 19 GW were added in 2020.